Toronto Maple Leafs: Who Sits for Komarov?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a deep team.

That depth is shown in multiple ways: the ability for the Toronto Maple Leafs to call impact defenseman Travis Dermott up in the middle of the season, while keeping quality NHL ready prospects Andreas Borgman, Calle Rosen and Justin Holl in the minors; the fact that Connor Carrick doesn’t play every game; James van Riemsdyk on the third line…….and I could go on.

The biggest illustration of their depth, in my opinion, is that Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen are relegated to the fourth line. These are two potentially high quality NHL wingers with blazing speed and a ton of talent, who are only able to barely crack the lineup. They’d be regulars on virtually every other team in the NHL.

But they also create a problem: There are too many wingers for too few spots.

With Leo Komarov ready to come back into the lineup, the Leafs are going to forced to sit a player who probably doesn’t deserve to sit.

The Reasoning

For starters, Mike Babcock already shut-down any speculation that Komarov’s injury cost him his job when he emphatically stated that Komarov is going to play when healthy. Komorov may be a great defensive forward, but he provides almost no offense: 7 goals and 19 points in 71 games is pretty bad.

If we’re talking On-Ice stats (team stats when the player is on the ice) Komarov is among the Leafs worst forwards in shot attempts-for, shots-for, scoring chances-for and goals-for. He is essentially a non-entity when it comes to offense, both individually and for the team when he’s on the ice. (His power play time is one of Babcock’s worst coaching moves).

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But without the puck, Komarov has long been considered an elite defensive forward. This year, it’s hard to tell if that’s true. Other than Plekanec, every forward on the Leafs who allows more shots per 60 than Komarov also gets more shots-for per 60 to help balance it out. Komarov also has one of the lowest Corsi ratings on the team.

So is he playing terribly, or are his stats suffering because as the Leafs best and most reliable defensive forward he is forced to play tough minutes and doesn’t get much help? The Leafs are a run-and-gun team who look to outscore their opponents while allowing way too many shots. It doesn’t take a much of an imagination to think that maybe a player who’s role is opposite the team’s style might struggle a bit.

Given that that their general philosophy is to score their way out of trouble, it’s worth asking if one strong defensive forward will make much difference? Maybe it’s better to just go all-in with that strategy and continue to play the scoring forwards in Komarov’s place.

But maybe not. He’s a big guy who brings a presence to the team few players (if any) are currently bringing. It’s hard to measure defensive contributions, but the numbers don’t suggest that Komarov is really helping all that much. It might be better to just play Johnsson.

Who Sits

We know that isn’t happening, however. Komarov is going to play. So who sits? Now, it’s almost certainly Johnsson, but for fun, let’s just compare a few possibilities. There is no chance (or reason) to sit Nylander, Hyman, JVR or Marner, so let’s look at the other four guys and see who is the worst player.

All stats 5v5 and from naturalstattrick.com

"Points/60 (individual)Johnsson : .99Kapanen: 1.46Brown: 1.47Marleau: 1.64"

Note, however, that for the two rookies those totals are lower than they should be due to Johnson and Kapanen having the two lowest on-ice shotting % on the team (among forwards).

"Shots/ 60 (individual)Johnsson : 10.89Kapanen: 8.42Brown: 6.32Marleau: 8.27"

"Corsi-For (Possession)Johnsson : 57.85Kapanen: 50.68Brown: 49.05Marleau: 48.87"

Conclusion

Those aren’t the only stats you should look at when evaluating players, and there is certainly more to the game than just numbers. (For instance, Patrick Marleau is a 38 year old vet/leader on this team and isn’t sitting out. I just included him for context).

Also, Johnson and Kapanen have played much fewer games than Brown and Marleau, so the sample size with their data is smaller and much less predictive.

However, if you were going to sit anyone for Komarov, at least based on offensive production, it seems like it should be Connor Brown. But he plays the PK and may also be a good defensive forward (again, the numbers don’t reflect this, but it’s hard to tell).

Would it be worth sitting Brown’s defense/special teams / experience (what little he has) for a slight upgrade in offense? Probably not, since the Leafs already have a ton of offense. Despite how exciting of a player he is, I don’t think that you can say anyone currently in the regular lineup should sit for him. I think we’re basically choosing between Komarov and Johnsson.

Next: NHL Seeds Teams in a Very Bad Way

Anyways, 800 words later, it doesn’t matter because Babcock will sit Johnsson because he’s a rookie and he doesn’t check and to the coach that outweighs skill and speed.