Toronto Maple Leafs: The Enemy’s Insight – The Buffalo Blues

The Toronto Maple Leafs saw their historic home winning streak snapped last night, dropping yet another thoroughly winnable game to lowly Buffalo Sabres.

Why is it always Buffalo? Despite possessing an ECHL-calibre roster, the NHL’s equivalent of a punchline repeatedly brings their A-game when facing the Leafs.

And, considering they maintain precisely no leverage in the rivalry, Habs fans have been using last night’s loss to get a few cheap shots in. A Winning Habit’s Omar White is no different.

Let’s see what questions he has for me this week.

“The Toronto Maple Leafs dropped another game to the Buffalo Sabres (lol). Why is it that games against the Sabres are never a guarantee despite their poor performances over the years?”

Ah, there it is.

I wish I had a definitive answer. To be fair, the Leafs should have absolutely trounced Buffalo on Monday. They dominated the possession game all night long while outshooting the Sabres by a margin of 41-27.

If Chad Johnson hadn’t taken a temporary break from his normal sub-.900 goaltender self to morph into Georges Vezina, this would’ve been a blowout.

Unfortunately, hockey is a dumb sport. The better team doesn’t always win.

The only possible reasoning for these repeated blunders is they must be mental. No matter how many times Mike Babcock tells you differently, human brains are biologically wired to bestow meaningless March games against last-place teams with less significance.

It’s just in our nature.

Imagine you’re a professional athlete. All season you’ve worked your keester off, driving your team to the precipice of franchise history, with your playoff matchup now more or less set in stone. Are you really going to give it your all when facing a roster of Jack Eichel and 20 human-shaped pylons?

Probably not.

Now, if these games rolled around in January, or even December, the results would likely be different. For some reason, the NHL scheduled the Leafs in a way where they didn’t play their geographically closest divisional opponent until March, with three more games then sandwiched into a three-week span.

Essentially, the Leafs are firmly locked into a playoff spot, while the Sabres are running out the clock on yet another lost season. To Buffalo, facing Toronto is the closest they’ll come to playing meaningful hockey until September.

For the Leafs, it’s just a scheduling formality.

“Leo Komarov looks like he will be returning to the lineup soon. Is there any way Andreas Johnsson remains on the team after that or is he destined to be sent back down to the Marlies?”

On the weekend, I wrote about how playing with Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen has helped Leafs-legend Tomas Plekanec assume his most effective role with the team.

The trio operates as the NHL’s best fourth line, injecting the Toronto’s roster with a level of depth necessary for a lengthy playoff run.

Of course, it won’t last long. Leo Komarov returns any day now, and Babcock recently confirmed he won’t be spending a second in the press box.

Simply put, Johnsson has been too effective to take out of the lineup.

His unique speed and overwhelming skill is an asset few teams boast amongst their bottom six. And, most importantly, he makes those around him better.

Splits

Playing away from Johnsson, Plekanec clocked in as a 51.9% CF/60 player, which isn’t too shabby. With Johnsson, however, that number jumped to 54.76%, elite production from a fourth line pivot.

Komarov, on the other hand, has the opposite effect.

In the 20 minutes he and Plekanec played together, the former-Hab registered a 39.39% CF/60, production bordering on AHL depth forward territory. Away from Komarov, Captain Turtleneck rose to a 47.95%, perfectly respectable for a depth centre.

To summarize, with Leo on his wing, Plekanec drives possession roughly as well as Anaheim’s Chris Kelly (yikes). With Johnsson, he does it better than practically any depth centre in the NHL.

This begs the question; who comes out when Leo returns? Babcock’s a smart guy. He knows he can’t sit Johnsson. Although it pains me to write this, the best answer is Connor Brown.

Why Brown?

Through March’s 11 games, Brown has just three points. Across the 14 games in February, he had six. In 12 January games, it was two.

For the past three calendar months, Brown just simply hasn’t been producing.

His underlying numbers have taken a dive from last year’s as well. In 2016-17, Brown finished the season dead even at a 50% CF/60. That’s quite good for a rookie playing most of his minutes on a shutdown line.

This year, he’s dipped to a 48.7%.

Now, some of that can be attributed to him playing on a Matt Martin and Dominic Moore-led fourth line for the bulk of the year. But, he’s been lining up alongside offensive contributors like William Nylander, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak for roughly a month and a half now, with almost no production to show for it.

If push comes to shove, Brown is likely the odd man out here.

“With third place in the Atlantic Division pretty much locked up, is there any chance Mike Babcock rests some of his veteran players such as a Ron Hainsey or Patrick Marleau?”

Last week, I proposed an alternative stretch drive plan that included, amongst other things, the resting of veterans like Ron Hainsey and Patrick Marleau.

Marleau likely won’t take a maintenance day. For one, he’s been great all year, having amassed 24 goals and 43 points at this point in the season. More importantly, the 38-year-old hasn’t missed a single game dating all the way back to 2008. In fact, last night served as the 700th consecutive contest he’s suited up for.

Yeah, Marleau’s not resting anytime soon.

Hainsey, on the other hand, looks completely worn out. Same goes for Nikita Zaitsev. Momentum is a factor, but what’s really the harm in having either player take a night off to recharge for the post-season grind?

The only hold up here is that, as per the CBA, teams can only use four non-emergency call-ups after the trade deadline.

Demoting Travis Dermott and Kasperi Kapanen, then immediately recalling them, thus ensuring their eligibility for the AHL playoffs, used two. Johnsson’s promotion made three.

The Leafs have just one AHL recall left, and they’ll likely avoid wasting it on resting a veteran, leaving them handcuffed were an injury to occur in the playoffs.

Instead, we’ll likely see Connor Carrick get a few more games down the stretch. Martin might make another lineup cameo. Even Josh Leivo could be granted temporary parole from the ACC’s jail, registering a point-per-game before getting thrown in solitary confinement once again.

Next: Fate of the Fourth Line

As is the case with most Babcock roster moves, we’ll just have to wait and see.