Toronto Maple Leafs: Fate of the Unbreakable Fourth Line

The Toronto Maple Leafs have the best fourth line in the entire NHL.

You know it. I know it. Your aunt’s cat knows it.

Saturday night’s dominance versus the listless Red Wings provided yet another example of the punishing speed and tenacity the trio of Tomas Plekanec, Andreas Johnsson, and Kasperi Kapanen inject into the Leafs lineup.

And yet, their unification will likely be fleeting. The spectre of Leo Komarov‘s return looms over them, begging two distinct questions.

Given their success, can the Leafs afford to split up this line? And if not, what do they do with Leo?

Coaches Praise

Of course, Mike Babcock holds supreme power over Toronto’s lineup decisions. So, to watch him continually heap praise upon his newly-formed trio bodes well for their future together.

At least for the time being.

It’s pretty clear Babcock loves his toys. And, based on his recent quotes, all signs point towards him coveting Johnsson as a collector’s item.

The biggest beneficiary of this lines formation has undoubtedly been Plekanec. Struggling to find his groove since leaving Montreal, Plekanec has looked like a completely different player when slotted in between Kapanen and Johnsson.

Numbers Don’t Lie

The numbers back this up.

Playing away from Johnsson, Plekanec is a 51.9% CF/60 player. Not bad at all, but below his previous standard. Playing with Johnsson, however, has turned him into a 54.76% CF/60 player, serving as outstanding production from a fourth line.

Same goes for Kapanen. Without him, Plekanec was a 46.07% CF/60, which is dreadful. Paired with the new Finnish Flash, he leaps all the way up to 51.55%.

Such a jump represents the gap between a depth centre on the fringes of the lineup and an elite fourth line pivot.

Now, CF/60 is obviously not the lone standard by which we measure contribution. No stat is. Saying that, the differences in shot attempts, both for and against, are glaring as well.

With Johnsson, the shots attempts unfold as 18 for and 15 against, leaving Plekanec at a +3 FF (Fenwick for). Alongside Kapanen, they’re at 40 for and 37 against. Again a +3 FF.

Playing away from those two, Plekanec’s shot attempts measured in at a -9.

Such upticks in production can’t be ignored. When paired with Johnsson and Kapanen, Plekanec is a statistically better player than he is without them. Both offensively and defensively.

As the playoffs approach, that’s not something to be taken lightly.

What To Do With Leo

On the flip side, Komarov was thriving in his newly-appointed fourth line role.

While he likely can’t be counted on for much offensively moving forward, he does remain one of the Leafs best defensive forwards. Babcock uses him as a staple on the PK and trusts him in the defensive zone while defending a late lead. That kind of usage is valuable, especially when the games get tighter.

Heading into a playoff series with the Bruins, and specifically, Brad Marchand, Komarov’s impact will likely be seen at its full potential. Or, at the very least we’ll see some romance.

Komarov’s underlying metrics this season are rough, something likely exacerbated by playing far too high in the lineup for a good chunk of the season. His CF/60 of 44.8% is abysmal, the same going for his -5.5 FF% rel.

In his brief stint with Plekanec, Komarov clearly suppressed the former-Hab’s impact. With Komarov, Plekanec measured in at a 39.39% CF/60(!). The shot differentials painted a rough picture as well, as the pair finished in the red at a -8 FF.

While it’s a limited sample size, the pair has played just over 20 minutes together, the results are striking.

In the playoffs, where every single game holds immeasurable value, are you comfortable taking the chance of pairing those two together again? More importantly, is Babcock?

Momentum plays an enormous factor in the post-season. Right now, the Johnsson-Plekanec-Kapanen trio has all the momentum in the world. To risk losing that directly prior to a Cup run may be unwise.

Next: Breaking Down the Penalty Kill

In times like these, I certainly don’t envy Mike Babcock.

Stats from Natural Stat Trick & Hockey Reference.