Toronto Maple Leafs: Breaking Down the Penalty Kill

The Toronto Maple Leafs penalty kill has been the most consistent part of their play through the entire season so far.

Although the Toronto Maple Leafs were relatively undisciplined on Thursday against the Nashville Predators (called for six penalties), they only take an average of 3-4 penalties per game. The Leafs have a league-ranked 9th best penalty kill this season (82.46%). It brings them down from their average of 5 penalties taken per game last season.

The Leafs penalty kill was actually slightly more effective last season at 82.47%, ranked 10th at the end of the regular season. The NHL’s average penalty kill percentage dropped this season from last (80.90% to 80.00%). The Leafs PK% follows the overall NHL trend, likely because the majority of teams are taking more penalties this season than last, affording opponents more of an opportunity to score on the powerplay.

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If we look at how the Leafs allocated minutes to players on the penalty kill last season, it’s fairly evenly spread out. Polak averaged the most shorthanded ice-time (2:53), and Froese rounded out the group with 23 shorthanded seconds per game. The maximum deviation isn’t all that large, especially when you take a look at this season’s numbers further down below.

Four of the five top minute-getters are defensemen, which makes sense. That’s two defenders per unit, if none of their go-to blueline penalty killers are responsible for putting them on the penalty kill in the first place. However, seven of the players who played more than 20 seconds a night on the penalty kill aren’t even with the Leafs anymore.

2017-18 Penalty Kill

This is where we really start to see an issue. The graph is split into what looks like four ‘tiers’, and the difference between each tier is pretty large. Only two Leafs defensemen are in the top 5 total minutes, and two players in the top 6 aren’t even on the active roster (Fehr isn’t even with the Leafs anymore). Although it’s working for now, it’s not sustainable in the long run.

Hainsey is averaging about four minutes on the penalty kill each game. He is usually on the ice for the entire two minutes of the penalty kill, unless there is a goal against. I’m concerned that the Leafs are overworking Hainsey shorthanded. Though Zaitsev returned to the lineup against the Predators, the Leafs then took six penalties, which didn’t help.

There have been a couple of times lately where Hainsey has made some questionable plays. Could they be explained by fatigue?

Zaitsev is loaded with shorthanded minutes when in the lineup. But he has the benefit of being fresh for the playoffs because he’s been injured often this season. The Leafs could shoulder him some of Hainsey’s minutes on the penalty kill to even things up. Morgan Rielly doesn’t really play shorthanded unless one of the main three defensemen is in the box. Still, only really relying on three-and-a-half defensemen to kill penalties during the playoffs isn’t ideal.

Forwards vs. Defensemen

These graphs are very similar – minutes are front-loaded on two players at each position. That’s not surprising, but they’re probably giving too many of those minutes to those two players. If the percentages dropped by 5%, it would probably help avoid fatigue among the heavily relied-upon penalty killers.

Analysis

However, I can’t see the Leafs calling Martin Marincin up to alleviate some of the shorthanded minutes on Hainsey, Zaitsev, and even Polak. There are just too many defensemen above him on the depth chart, and he’s only really effective shorthanded.

The Leafs have seven games left in the regular season. They have to avoid burning Hainsey and Zaitsev out. Either their even-strength minutes need to come down, or the Leafs need to start spreading out their shorthanded ice-time more evenly. It’s not sustainable to have Hainsey out for two minutes straight on the penalty kill. Even something like 30-45 more seconds to Rielly would probably do wonders.

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It’s the same story with the forwards. Komarov and Hyman play 50% of the total penalty minutes allocated to forwards each game. However, Komarov’s injury has forced the Leafs to use different players to kill penalties.

Conclusion

Right now, the Toronto Maple Leafs penalty kill is rolling. We shouldn’t expect many changes once the playoffs begin, unless there are injuries. However, Hainsey and Zaitsev are 1 and 2 in shorthanded minutes by a wide margin. Those TOI totals need to come down.

The good thing is that the Toronto Maple Leafs have dependable penalty killing options up front that it’s not much of a problem if injuries pop up. Tomas Plekanec has looked very steady shorthanded, finally looking comfortable with his role. Kasperi Kapanen and Connor Brown make a good second forward PK pair when Komarov is healthy. Even Andreas Johnsson saw some shorthanded ice-time last night against Detroit.

Next: Zack Hyman Trade

If the Leafs can find a way to do the same with the blueline, they should be good to go heading into the playoffs.

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Statistics from Hockey Reference.