How the Toronto Maple Leafs Can Clinch a Playoff Spot

The Toronto Maple Leafs basically clinched a playoff spot at Christmas.

Due to the insane way the NHL seeds its teams for the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs could only miss the Playoffs if they somehow were passed by another team in the Atlantic.   Fortunately, there are no other good teams in the Atlantic, so the Leafs have been all but assured of a first round matchup with the Boston Bruins since Christmas.

In fact, back then, it was the Red Wings, not the Panthers who were closest, and even though the Panthers won like 10 in a row or something at one point, they have never been a threat to overtake the Leafs.

Because of this it hardly matters when the Leafs technically clinch, as they have been operating with a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs for months now.

A major drawback to this – besides sapping the season of some excitement and drama – is that in exchange for a guaranteed playoff spot, the Toronto Maple Leafs, the 6th overall team in the NHL and 3rd best in the Eastern Conference, have to play the Bruins who happen to be the 3rd best team in the NHL and the second best in the East.

What kind of reward for kicking so much ass is that?  Though, to be fair, if the NHL seeded the conferences 1-8, the Leafs would be playing Columbus in the first round, and they’re arguably a better team than Boston, they just happened to have a slow start this year.

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How to Clinch

The Florida Panthers are currently 14 points back of the Leafs and have ten games to play.  If they were to go 10-0, they would finish with 101 points.

If the Leafs won just three games out of their remaining eight, they would have 101 points, and if even one of the Panthers ten straight wins wasn’t in regulation, the Leafs would still win.

There is almost no chance of the Leafs getting just six points in their last eight games, but even if it did happen, the Panthers won’t be going 10-0.

To match the Leafs current 95 points, the Panthers need seven wins out of their last ten games.   This means that any combination of Leafs wins or Panthers losses totally four games will eliminate the Panthers.

If the Panthers lose three games, and the Leafs fail to win another, the teams will tie and the Panthers, assuming all seven of their final wins were in regulation, will have the tie breaker by virtue of beating the Leafs 2-1 in the season series (though that could change when they play each other on Wednesday).

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Before the Leafs play the Panthers on Wednesday, this could all be over. If the Leafs beat the Wings and Sabres, and the Panthers lose to the Coyotes and Islanders, it will render Wednesday meaningless.  However, according to my possibly wrong calculations, if the Leafs and Panthers each go 1-1 before Wednesday, the Leafs could deliver the coups de grace in person.

But it doesn’t really matter. The Leafs are in.