Toronto Maple Leafs Need to Let van Riemsdyk Walk

The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot afford to resign James van Reimsdyk.

One of the biggest debates of the year has been whether the Toronto Maple Leafs should re-sign James van Riemsdyk or if should they let him go for nothing in the off-season. While JVR has had himself a strong offensive year, the Leafs should not be resigning him long term. Most people are expecting JVR to take a “hometown discount” to return to the Toronto Maple Leafs but that is still a mystery. As the best winger going into free agency, I have a tough time believing JVR will settle for a discount after seeing some of the offers he will receive on July 1st. Below I will go through some of the major aspects of JVR’s game to prove why he should not be signed long term by the Leafs.

Goal scoring

There is no denying that van Riemsdyk is an elite goal scorer. He is able to make things happen when around the net at both even strength and on the powerplay. His net front presence is a major reason why his PP unit is one of the best in the league. Currently, JVR has a career high 31 goals in 70 games. He has also scored five goals in his last two games reminding everyone of how dangerous he can be. He is also only one goal off his career high in even strength goals which he achieved last year with 23.

One large issue the Leafs should consider when looking to resign JVR is his current shooting percentage of 15.1%. This is much higher than his second largest shooting percentage of 12.9% from the lockout season and is also higher than his career average with the Leafs of 12.0%. To put this into perspective, if JVR was shooting a 12.0% this season he would have around 24 goals with 11 games left in the season, making it pretty difficult to get to 30 goals. Signing a free agent goal scorer long term after a season of high percentage shooting is a recipe for disaster. Recent examples of this are T.J. Oshie and Milan Lucic. History shows that shooting percentages tend to drop towards the average, making it difficult to trust in JVR’s goal scoring pace this season.

Defence

Other than goal scoring Riemsdyk is below average in many other aspects of the game. In particular, his defensive game has been particularly bad this season. Riemsdyk looks disengaged when the Leafs do not have possession of the puck and the numbers prove it. At the current rate he is going, Riemsdyk should finish with a career low in hits/game, takeaways/game and blocks/game. JvR is also ranked third among forwards for most minor penalties taken which is shocking considering his sheltered deployment. Most of his penalties are lazy attempts at trying to retrieve the puck. His line is also usually pinned in their own end despite starting the shift in the offensive zone.

Shot differential and deployment

At the surface JVR’s shot and goal differentials look very good. A 5v5 CF% of 55.1 and an expected goal differential of 5.2 are some of the best of his career yet his deployment could be the reason why those are inflated. It is no secret that since Mike Babcock took over the Riemsdyk line has been heavily sheltered. Riemsdyk leads all Leafs forwards in offensive zone start percentage with 63.7%. His CF% over his career seems to correlate directly to his zone starts. If the Leafs keep JVR long term this could mean that Mike Babcock has to continue heavily sheltering one line in order to keep Riemsdyk out of his own end at even strength.

Other options

Within the system

The Leafs have a number of wingers in the system who are ready to come in and make an impact at the NHL level. Currently, Kasperi Kapanen is stuck on the fourth line due to the top nine wing positions being occupied. Trading JVR could allow Kapanen to get more ice time with more offensive opportunities. Kapanen’s speed, zone entry expertise and the fact that he could already be a top 3 defensive winger on the Leafs prove that he is in need of a promotion.

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Furthermore, the Leafs have a number of wingers in the system who look promising. Andreas Johnsson, Carl Grundstrom and Josh Leivo all look like they are ready to be every day NHLer’s.

Outside the organization

JVR is going to be the best winger in the free agent pool. After two straight years of scoring 30+ goals the chances of him getting “paid” are high, therefore minimizing the chances of him taking a hometown discount to return to Toronto. Luckily he isn’t the only option the Leafs have.

Patrick Maroon

Patrick Maroon is a similar player to Riemsdyk for a cheaper price. Maroon is better defensively, a better fore checker than JVR plus Maroon isn’t a bad goal scorer himself. He also has a nasty side to his game something that Mike Babcock values.

Ilya Kovalchuk

There are rumours that Ilya Kovalchuk wants to return to the NHL. At 34, his game has surely declined from the point per game offensive phenomenon he once was but that isn’t what the Leafs would expect from him. Kovalchuk is still an above point per game player in the KHL. Last year Kovalchuk produced at a similar clip to Evgeni Dadonov, a player who currently has 54 points in 60 games on the Florida Panthers.

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Conclusion

The best part about having a deep prospect pool is having flexibility within your cap and lineup. At any given time the Toronto Maple Leafs have a number of wing options who are ready to contribute at the NHL level. Having these wing options makes re-signing van Reimsdyk less necessary. Having flexible contracts and cap space is important if the Leafs want to achieve sustained success. Committing to JVR long term locks up cap room that could be used to resign our young stars or for acquiring a top four defensemen. JVR’s high shooting percentage, defensive troubles, and declining shot totals are strong reasons as to why the Leafs should not entertain signing him long term.

*Be sure to check out EIL contributor Josh Tessler for the opposite take.

Follow @NickDeSouza_ for more information and analysis about the Toronto Maple Leafs.