Toronto Maple Leafs: Breaking Down the Powerplay

The Toronto Maple Leafs powerplay in their last stretch of games has been exceptionally dangerous.

The Toronto Maple Leafs 10 goals in their last eight games shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. The Leafs have enough offensively gifted players in the lineup every game. They should be scoring on the powerplay on a regular basis.

In 71 games played this season, the Leafs have scored 43 goals on the powerplay. Their powerplay is 4th best in the NHL right now, behind Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Winnipeg.

However, when you break down those 43 goals between the two powerplay units that Mike Babcock deploys every night, there’s a pretty wide margin between them, and it’s probably not what you’d expect.

The 1st Unit

The Leafs 1st powerplay unit is what I refer to as the more successful one, and the unit that often starts the powerplay.

Morgan Rielly quarterbacks this unit (finally, someone heard our pleas from last season and swapped Zaitsev out for him). This is actually the more veteran unit for the Leafs, as he’s joined by Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, and Nazem Kadri. Mitch Marner rounds them out, the only under-21-year old on this unit.

The huge issue with the JVR-Bozak-Marner line when they were together at the beginning of this season was their defensive coverage. Obviously, the coaching staff recognized that because they were split up. However, reuniting them on the powerplay is genius, because they are lethal offensively and rarely need to defend their own zone.

No one has benefitted from this unit more than Rielly. He has 19 points on the powerplay (18 assists) this season, miles away from his 5 measly points last season. However, it’s Marner who leads the Leafs in powerplay points this season. His 7 goals and 22 points on the man-advantage have surpassed his powerplay totals from last season (4 goals, 21 points). Kadri and van Riemsdyk lead the Leafs in powerplay goals with 9. Kadri set a career-high in powerplay goals last season (12), and JVR has tied his career-high this season. Bozak has rounded out the group nicely, with 10 powerplay points of his own.

Ron Hainsey and Connor Carrick both have powerplay goals when playing with players on this unit, so it’s good to see that this first unit can adapt on the fly.

The 2nd Unit

This unit is the one that Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Jake Gardiner play on. Gardiner leads this unit in points with 10.

Yeah, you read that right.

Matthews and Nylander have 7 and 8 points, respectively. Not bad considering, but they are two of the Leafs most high-profile scorers. Matthews has really struggled with injuries this season, missing more than 25% of the games after playing in all 82 games last year, so that’s definitely a factor. He finished last season with 20 points on the man-advantage. Nylander, on the other hand, hasn’t missed a game this season. His 8 powerplay points in 71 games this season are a far cry away from his 26 points in 81 games last year.

This unit combined for three goals (Gardiner, Leo Komarov, Kadri) way back on October 7th against the New York Rangers. Back at the beginning of the season, Kadri played on this unit before being switched permanently to the one he’s currently on now.

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Aside from Gardiner, Matthews, and Nylander, though, the rest of the unit has been a rotating cast. Babcock has been moving players in and out of this unit to try and get something going. All of Patrick Marleau, Connor Brown, Komarov, Josh Leivo have seen time on this unit. Babcock even put recent call-up Andreas Johnsson on this unit, even though there wasn’t an opportunity for him to see powerplay ice-time in his NHL debut Wednesday night.

Inconsistency with the personnel might be a factor to the unit’s slowed production, though most likely, shooting percentage is the main factor.  The first unit average a goal around 16% of the shots, while the second unit comes in between 9-112%.  It is a well established fact that players have no control over their shooting percentage, so unit one has been just a little luckier.  Furthermore, since they are usually the first group on the ice, if they score, the second unit doesn’t get a chance to.

A Numbers Look

https://twitter.com/laurkelly24/status/974493012075061248

Ultimately, that first unit is carrying this Leafs powerplay. There’s no logical reason Matthews and Nylander should be struggling so much on the powerplay. They both have 50 points on the season and have no problem scoring at even strength. I’m not suggesting the second unit has to start scoring at the torrid pace of the other unit, but if the first unit’s production drops off, it would really help balance things out.  When you look at the talent, if you consider Matthews injuries, shooting percentage and deployment, it’s hard to see the second unit’s lack of success as anything other than random.

I’d like to see, however, if some personnel changes would help. Maybe Brown and Kasperi Kapanen should get extended looks in place of Komarov and Marleau.  I hope the next time Johnsson dresses, he gets a chance too. All three could  jumpstart a powerplay unit desperately needing offense.

Next: Is Liljegren NHL Ready?

Matthews’ return should help, obviously. Regardless of what they decide to do (and they may very well decide to do nothing), the Leafs have 11 games left in the regular season. They’re going to want both powerplay units firing on all cylinders as they head into the playoffs.

All statistics from Hockey Reference.