Toronto Maple Leafs: The Enemy’s Insight – Stretch Drive

With a playoff spot all but sewn up, the Toronto Maple Leafs are now in a unique position.

They can now focus on the bigger picture, rest some players, and gear up for a Cup run. Montreal, unfortunately, doesn’t have the same luxury.

So, let’s find out what A Winning Habit editor Omar White wants to ask me this week. I’m sure he’s TOTALLY not jealous at all.

“Mitch Marner has had a complete 180 of a season as of late. What has he been doing to get his game to this level and keep it there?”

Here’s a fun fact: as Christmas came and went, Mitch Marner had but two goals to his name. Now, he’s nearly guaranteed to finish the season with at least 20.

Not too shabby.

Marner isn’t entirely blameless for his slow start. On most nights, the 19-year-old looked as if he was trying his hardest to create offence out of thin air, leading him to seemingly develop an allergy to shooting the puck.

That said, it’s not exactly a coincidence Marner completely turned his season around the second Mike Babcock placed him on a line with actual playmakers.

Tyler Bozak and James Van Riemsdyk (the latter more than the former) are both above average offensive producers. Except, it was primarily Marner’s job to drive possession when the trio was together.

Bozak’s play especially showcases this, as he dropped from roughly a 50% CF/60 at 5v5 with Marner, to a 47.69% without him.

It’s not a good look for a 30-year-old veteran centre to rely so heavily on the play of a teenager.

Now aligned with Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau, the responsibility of driving the play isn’t entirely on Marner’s shoulders. He’s able to perform his usual puck wizardry without having the offence live and die on his stick.

Even when the Marner-Kadri connection has been disbanded, Marner has been shifted over to another playmakers wing, William Nylander‘s. Marner’s a good player in his own right, but surround him with potent offensive talent, and he becomes great.

“When is the coveted boy wonder Auston Matthews returning to the lineup? Do the Leafs hold him out until the playoffs?”

I wrote about this a few days ago, and there are two schools of thought which stem from this.

The Leafs could hold Auston Matthews out for an extra game or two, allowing him to be at 100% health for when the playoffs hit and games start to matter. Doing so would not only allow their franchise cornerstone to be fresh for the postseason but allow depth players the likes of Josh Leivo and Matt Martin to get in some game action as well.

On the other hand, the lead separating the Leafs and Florida Panthers in the Atlantic Division standings is rapidly eroding. To avoid any undue stress, the Leafs could really benefit from getting their best player back.

Essentially, it all comes down to whether or not you think Matthews needs a few regular season games to get his legs back before the playoffs begin.

I’m in that camp, meaning I’d likely bring him back with roughly two weeks remaining in the season. Let him get his sea legs back, and unleash him upon the world when the Cup run begins.

“With the Atlantic Division shaping out to be what it is, are the Leafs willing to settle for third or will they push to get home ice against the Bruins?”

Based purely off of the remaining strength of schedule, Toronto possesses a decent shot at threatening to catch the Bruins for 2nd in the Atlantic.

Unfortunately, as is the case each season, every team the Leafs root against to lose inexplicably embark on unstoppable winning streaks once March hits.

This year is no different, and third place is now looking to be an inevitability. Which, frankly, isn’t the worst case scenario.

The Leafs have won all but one meeting with Boston over the last two seasons, with the most recent victory coming while missing Matthews. While home ice is undoubtedly important in the playoffs, starting the series in Boston isn’t a death sentence.

That said, the Leafs have a sparkling home record of 28-8-3 this season, compared to an underwhelming 17-14-5 on the road.

Securing home-ice advantage would be just that; an advantage.

Next: Roundtable: GM of the Future

Thanks for reading!