If You Wanna Get Pumped about the Leafs, Read This
The Toronto Maple Leafs have essentially clinched a playoff spot.
According to HockeyReference.com, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. For the mathematically challenged, that is a certainty.
Eastern Conference Playoff Odds:
— Hockey Reference (@hockey_ref) March 6, 2018
1. Lightning 100%
2. Bruins 100%
3. Leafs 99.9%
4. Caps 99.7%
5. Pens 98.7%
6. Flyers 96.9%
7. Devils 71.2%
8. Panthers 70.0%
9. Blue Jackets 35.5%
10. Canes 16.9%
11. Islanders 5.3%
12. Rangers 4.9%
13. Red Wings 0.7%
14. Habs 0.3%
For the Leafs, in their second post-rebuild season, to be guaranteed a playoff spot with 15 games remaining (this was from earlier in the week) is quite impressive.
We’ve all known since basically Christmas that this was true, but seeing it represented mathematically has it’s own charm. Due to the NHL’s insane way of tracking and seeding the standings, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been all but guaranteed to play the Boston Bruins in the opening round of the playoffs for a couple of months now.
Certainly it’s nice to know the team is making the Playoffs, but it has kind of sucked any drama out of the last 30 games of the season. Not to mention the danger of the team getting complacent.
The Florida Panthers were so far back that even though they recently went on a streak where they won 15 of 19 games, the are still 12 points back of the Leafs. And, were the Leafs to be caught by the Panthers, it’s almost impossible that both the Blue Jackets and Devils would win enough to also catch the Leafs.
Toronto Maple Leafs Better than You Think
The Leafs are 13 and seven points back of the Lightning and Bruins, respectively. If, however, you consider that the Leafs have played 23% of their games this season without their best player, then those gaps become irrelevant.
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The Leafs could very well be in first place in the division, conference and entire NHL if Auston Matthews hadn’t missed 16 games (and counting). Matthews is one of the NHL’s five best players, so he makes a pretty big difference.
Despite playing 15 games less than his competition, Auston Matthews is tied for second, and just one goal back of first, in 5v5 goals. While everyone makes a big deal about the Rocket Richard Trophy, the fact is, it’s more impressive to lead the league in 5v5 goals than to have the most total goals.
Last year, Matthews led the NHL in 5v5 goals and there is a 100% chance he would have again had he not missed 16 games. If he comes back this week, there’s still a high probability of him winning the title for the second year in a row.
With apologies to Ovechkin, Kessel, Marchand, Kucherov and Laine, Auston Matthews is unquestionably the best goal scorer in the NHL. If they had the NHL’s best goal scorer for every single game this year, they are likely winning their division and probably the President’s Trophy.
Next: We Salute This All-Time Great Leafs Player
It’s not unreasonable to think that with Matthews in the lineup, a Freddie Andersen who is on his game, and a recently leveled up superstar in Mitch Marner, that the Leafs are the best team in hockey.
A Stanley Cup this Spring Is not Impossible.