Toronto Maple Leafs: Calle Rosen’s Confounding Puck Luck

When the Toronto Maple Leafs began their regular season in October, their roster looked markedly different than it does today.

Eric Fehr was the fourth line centre. Roman Polak was but a distant memory. And newly-signed Swedish defenceman Calle Rosen watched from the press box, earning an NHL paycheck.

After four relatively underwhelming games with the Leafs, Rosen was then jettisoned to the AHL, where he’s since logged heavy minutes on a stacked Marlies blueline.

To date, he’s registered 15 points in 48 games.

Since his demotion, Rosen has flown largely under the radar with Leafs fans. Thanks to the spectacular play of Andreas Johnsson, coupled with the sizeable developmental strides taken by Timothy Liljegren and Jeremy Bracco, Rosen hasn’t garnered nearly the same level of discussion.

Come to think of it, that might be for the best. Rosen’s a man of few words, and the relative anonymity afforded to him in the AHL may be his most successful path.

Covering the Marlies this year, I’ve had the luxury of observing Rosen’s acclimation to North American ice in person. So, allow me to give you an update on one of the Leafs most mysterious players.

Specifically, his brain melting shooting percentage.

Shooting Percentage

One glance at Rosen’s stat line is enough to force a double take.

48 games into his North American professional career, Rosen has but one goal to his name. Pretty underwhelming, right? Well, it’s not that simple. In fact, Rosen may be victim to one of the most perplexing cases of puck luck in hockey today.

To date, Rosen has scored his lone goal despite firing a whopping 123(!) shots on net. As a defenceman. That’s good for a shooting percentage of 0.00813%.

Honestly, you could toss Air Bud on the ice and he’d likely double Rosen’s goal total while taking half as many shots.

Rosen’s shot totals place him second on the Marlies in that category, leaving him just one behind Johnsson’s 124. Remember, Johnsson is his team’s primary offensive catalyst, having played four more games than Rosen, and is also a forward.

Shot Generation

It’s here where we’re faced with the argument surrounding quantity over quality.

To preface the following assertions, it’s important to note that the AHL’s stats department is unfortunately scarce. This means I don’t have helpful analytical tools like shots maps and heat charts to definitively illustrate where Rosen’s shots have been generated from.

In true old-school fashion, I’m going to need to use my eyes.

The overwhelming majority of Rosen’s shots this season have been generated from the point. This has been a problem for the Marlies all season, as their defencemen regularly force low percentage wristers from long range, shots which either get blocked or stopped easily. It’s actually been one of the few criticisms of Liljegren’s game.

Rosen is no different, as he cranks this up to 11.

This isn’t to say that these shots don’t ever pay off. Rosen’s first AHL goal was scored this way, and a number of his assists have stemmed from his wristers being tipped.

Although, one goal on 123 shots leads one to believe this strategy just isn’t working. At a certain point, luck becomes irrelevant. A change is needed.

Moving Forward

This isn’t to say that Rosen isn’t putting together a promising season. On the contrary, he’s looked more comfortable with each passing game.

His agility, originating from a silky smooth skating stride and above average puck vision, is far and away his biggest asset. Rosen can move the puck up the ice with ease, by either finding a streaking forward exiting the zone or simply skating it out himself.

His improvements haven’t gone unnoticed.

Following Saturday’s loss to Rochester, Marlies head coach Sheldon Keefe affectionately referred to Rosen as the Marlies’ most consistent defenceman, a player who’s softened the blow of Travis Dermott‘s promotion.

Something tells me Keefe’s praise will increase once the numbers begin swinging back in Rosen’s favour.

So, if AHL fantasy hockey existed, and I wish every single day that it did, Rosen would undoubtedly be the most highly coveted waiver pickup from here on out. For, barring an unforeseen mathematical event, he won’t be shooting at less than a one percent clip for much longer.

Don’t let his single goal fool you. Rosen’s steadily coming along and becomes more likely to offensively erupt each time he steps on the ice.

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