Toronto Maple Leafs: Breaking Down Curtis McElhinney’s Unusually Good Season

Toronto Maple Leafs backup goaltender Curtis McElhinney has a 0.932 save percentage.

No, you did not read that incorrectly.

Curtis McElhinney, the Columbus Blue Jackets castaway who was claimed off of waivers once the Jhonas Enroth experiment failed, currently has a 0.932 SV% through 10 appearances this season with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I know, it’s hard to believe.

But on the surface, McElhinney has been exceptional for Toronto. At age 34, it’s especially astonishing when you recognize that the native of London, Ontario has a career save percentage of just 0.907.

Game-by-Game Breakdown

The question is, what is behind this exceptional play? First, let’s take a look at his performances to date:

(Stats via Hockey Reference)

As you can see, McElhinney has had some stellar outings for the Maple Leafs this season.

Four of nine starts with a save percentage greater than 0.970 is impressive for any goalie, but especially for McElhinney, who had just five shutouts over his NHL career heading into the 2017-18 season.

Interestingly, McElhinney hasn’t really had an average game this season. Other than his season debut, McElhinney has either stole the show or been lit up.

That season-opening performance is the only outlier, with a .909 SV% against Detroit. While the 34-year-old has four starts with a save percentage greater than 0.970, McElhinney also has four starts with a save percentage lower than 0.900.

In his last three appearances, however, McElhinney has been stellar. He has allowed just two goals on 81 shots. These recent results are the driving force behind the recent talk about how good McElhinney has been for the Leafs this season, which is warranted to a certain extent.

Yes, McElhinney has been solid, especially in recent appearances, but there are still concerns.

He hasn’t been overly consistent, but that can be expected due to his situation. McElhinney hasn’t started a game that is not the second half of a back-to-back.

Combine the tired group in front of him with weeks sitting on the bench, and some inconsistency can be excused.

A Deeper Dive

We can take a deeper dive into McElhinney’s save percentage by looking at his percentages versus low, medium, and high danger chances.

The numbers paint a very intriguing picture. McElhinney’s low danger save percentage (LDSV%) of 0.992 is among the best in the league (min. 400 minutes), ranking fourth. He’s let in only three low danger chances. Two came in the first two games of his season while the third was in his most recent appearance against Anaheim.

Medium Danger

Things begin to get interesting as we look at McElhinney’s performance against medium danger chances.

Although he boasts one of the best LDSV% in the NHL, his medium danger save-percentage (MDSV%) is among the worst in the NHL (minimum 400 minutes). At just 0.888, McElhinney’s MDSV% ranks third worst in the NHL, showing an interesting weakness through 10 appearances in 2017-18.

The only netminders worse than him against these medium danger chances are Columbus’ Joonas Korpisalo and Edmonton’s Laurent Brossoit.

The enigma known as McElhinney only gets more fascinating when we continue on to high danger chances. He has the highest high danger save-percentage (HDSV%) in the National Hockey League at an incredible 0.913.

In watching him this season, it isn’t overly surprising to see that McElhinney’s HDSV% is so high. Media and fans alike have noticed he has made big save after big save.

McElhinney has come in clutch many times this season. While he has stopped the incredible, high danger chances against, he has been prone to letting in some of the more “stoppable” chances against, evident in his very low MDSV%.

A Surprising Outcome

McElhinney’s old school, ugly, flailing style has produced some nerve-wracking, but important stops for the Maple Leafs this season.

Though his MDSV% leaves a lot to be asked for, his LDSV% and HDSV% have more than made up for it in 2017-18. Account for the fact that McElhinney has, historically, been among the worst goalies in the National Hockey League, and this can only be considered a success for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.

Perhaps having Garret Sparks and Calvin Pickard breathing down his neck is a reason for his sudden impressive play.

Maybe the Maple Leafs’ goaltending coach Steve Briere is a magician. Or maybe, McElhinney’s just on a hot streak.

Regardless, as one of the many doubters of McElhinney heading into the 2017-18 season, he has done everything that has been asked of him to become a dependable backup for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2017-18.

Though I would love to see Sparks or Pickard on the 23-man roster, give credit where credit is due. McElhinney has proven his doubters wrong.

Next: Marlies Notebook: Soshnikov Cocktail

Well, at least for now.