Toronto Maple Leafs: The Enemy’s Insight – Playoff Push

Three questions about the Toronto Maple Leafs and not one of them is centred around Nikita Soshnikov?

You’re slipping, Omar. Step your game up.

Alas, it has undoubtedly been a busy week in Leaf Nation. What with all the wins, domination of Ottawa, and trade deadline speculation.

So, there’s no better time than the present to answer some Leafs-centric questions thrown at me by a Habs fan, right?

Let’s do this thing!

“Will the Leafs stay complacent and settle for third in the Atlantic or will they push for second or even possibly first?”

I was planning on writing about this exact topic until The Athletic beat me to it. Damn them and their high-quality reporting!

Essentially, there exists a high probability of the Leafs entering the first round of the playoffs with home-ice advantage.

Why?

Well, you may have noticed that the Boston Bruins currently have three games in hand on the Leafs. At one point, that number got up to five.

How is that possible?

Basically, Toronto’s early-season schedule was absolutely gruelling. Over the first four months, they played more games than any other NHL team and did so in the shortest amount of time.

On the other hand, The Bruins have had a brisk Autumn stroll through the season so far. In terms of both workload and competition, their schedule has been softer than a baby’s bottom.

What’s that famous Einstein quote again?  Oh yeah, “for every action there is an equal but opposite reaction”.

As James Mirtle reported in his aforementioned story:

"Boston has to cram 29 games into the final eight weeks. Normally NHL teams play an average of about 3.1 games a week; the Bruins will be playing 3.6 the rest of the way. And 17 of those final 29 are on the road."

That’s absurd.

Meanwhile, the Leafs are about to face the Jack Eichel-less Sabres four times in the span of a month. That’s four wins right there.

Then, over the next 26 games, Toronto will take on opponents not currently holding playoff spots a whopping 15 times(!).

To answer your question, no, I do not believe that the Leafs will settle for third in the Atlantic. In fact, I’d put money on them kicking off the playoffs at the ACC.

“Mitch Marner seems to have Ottawa’s number but his overall play has reached another level. What is he doing differently?”

I think Mitch Marner‘s recent resurgence is less about what he’s doing differently and more about his new surroundings.

Aside from brief stints on the fourth line, Tyler Bozak and James Van Riemsdyk had been the only linemates Marner had ever known. At least up until recently.

And, while that line certainly worked well together last season, it just hadn’t been clicking in this one.

Were I to point a finger of blame, it would be directed at Bozak. He’s taken a substantial step backwards from his career year in 2016-17 and his regression brought Marner down with him.

In order to prop up his underwhelming centre, Marner seemingly developed an allergy to shooting the puck. He repeatedly forewent surefire scoring chances in favour of low percentage passes to one of the most notorious non-finishers in the game.

No wonder his numbers took a hit.

So, is it really a coincidence that Marner seemingly regained his offensive prowess immediately after being moved to Nazem Kadri‘s line? Or that Kadri, who had previously gone without a point for an entire month, is now hotter than a shirtless Ryan Gosling since being gifted Marner?

I think not.

The pair has incredible chemistry, with their specific skillsets suiting each other to perfection. We all knew Marner was never as bad as his early season numbers seemed to suggest.

All it took was a fresh start on a dynamic line to rejuvenate him.

“Am I wrong to say that Morgan Reilly and Nikita Zaitsev haven’t been as dynamic since coming back from injury?”

You most certainly are not wrong. In fact, I’d lump Ron Hainsey in there as well.

It’s fair to say that no one expected Hainsey to maintain the level of play he demonstrated earlier this season. He’s a 36-year-old defenceman who was logging outrageous, unsustainable shutdown minutes.

Over 82 games, that was never going to last.

Regarding Nikita Zaitsev, his struggles date back to before he even went down with an injury. To date, his possession numbers have been brutal, with a 46.9% CF/60 at 5v5, a dip from his 49.4% in 2016-17.

Not to mention, he’s put up underwhelming point totals as well, despite coming off a 36 point rookie campaign. Although, his 10 points in 41 games is primarily due to a dramatically reduced role on the power play.

As Sportsnet’s Hockey Central @ Noon reported this week, Zaitsev’s injury may have been far more debilitating than previously thought.

According to this report, the bone Zaitsev ultimately broke happened to be the one lining the interior arch of his foot. As a defenceman, that’s no flesh wound.

On the contrary, it’s the primary source of pressure for the foot when transitioning between forwards and backwards skating.

You know, something incredibly vital to Zaitsev’s position.

Whether he rushed back from the injury or not, we may never know. What we do know, however, is it seems that Zaitsev has struggled to acclimate back to the pace of the game. The only cure for that is time.

Now, as for Morgan Rielly, his recent struggles are self-explanatory. Literally, he explained them himself.

No wonder Rielly, a skilled defenceman used to controlling the puck at top speed, is struggling. His tools of the trade, those being his hands, aren’t back at 100% yet.

If I were the Leafs, and I’m definitely not, I’d handle these injuries with extreme caution. Come playoff time, you simply cannot expect to topple Tampa or Boston with a burnt out backend.

So, after beating Tamps on Monday night, you’re now 20 points up on a playoff spot. It’s a near guarantee.

Sit Hainsey for a few games. Let him breathe. Give Zaitsev some PP time to regain his confidence. And just be patient with Rielly.

They’ll all come around.

Bonus Question: “Which 3 Leafs players would you want to make a bobsled team with?”

Inspired by this tweet:

https://twitter.com/SBNation/status/962458475610681345

Considering I know nothing about bobsledding or math, I am going to answer this question with pure speculation.

Marner would be my first choice, as he weighs roughly 100 pounds and seems pretty aerodynamic. Kasperi Kapanen would be my second choice, as he could push the bobsled to previously unrecorded speeds.

And, last but not least, I’d round out my team with Josh Leivo. For no other reason than I feel bad for him and want to make him feel included.

Next: Marlies Notebook: (Un)Arrested Development

Thanks for reading!