Toronto Maple Leafs Sit Their Best Defensive D-Man
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs don’t seem to know what they have in Connor Carrick.
Tonight, the Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning, and for reasons that make no sense, Mike Babcock will sit Connor Carrick in place of Roman Polak.
Connor Carrick shouldn’t sit for anyone. He’s the Leafs best right-handed defenseman.
Last season Carrick was a mainstay on the Leafs best pairing, along with Jake Gardiner. This season, because he isn’t big, or doesn’t have the pedigree, or who knows why, he isn’t playing nearly as much. After playing in 67 games last year, he’s only played in 37 so far this year.
The problem with this is that Carrick is extremely effective and consistent, and so the Leafs are intentionally dressing a worse version of their team every time they sit him.
Forget about Polak, Carrick is arguably better than either Hainsey or Zaitsev – you can make a case that he’s the Leafs best right-handed defenseman (note that Hainsey is a lefty who plays the right said, but it doesn’t change my point).
Carrick
So far this season, if we look at defenseman on the Leafs who’ve played a minimum 500 minutes, Carrick is second only to Rielly in Corsi-For percentage. A lot of people incorrectly scoff at Corsi stats, but they are here to stay. If you get more shot-attempts than your opponent, then you will win more games than you lose, over time. Nothing correlates better to winning, over the long-term.
What’s more, Gardiner, Dermott, Rielly and Hainsey all have better possession numbers when they are on the ice with Carrick than without him.
Besides being one of the Leafs best possession players, and making virtually everyone he skates with better, Carick leads all regular Leafs defenseman in shots against/60. He is the only Leafs D to allow under 30 shots per 60, and he’s more than two whole shots better than the Leafs next-best shot suppressor, Jake Gardiner.
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Finally, Carrick is the Leafs defenseman with the lowest expected goals against, which is a stat designed to take luck out of the equation.
What is the Leafs biggest problem? It’s obviously shots-allowed, where they are ranked as the fourth worst team in the NHL. (And while Carrick is a great shot-suppressor, Roman Polak is among the league’s worst at suppressing shots). Why would you sit the player who does best the one thing your team is worst at?
Conclusion
Statistically, the Toronto Maple Leafs are not playing their best defensive defenseman. The problem is that Carrick is a small player who doesn’t score. Coaches (and most fans) who have been raised on the dogma of the old NHL have not yet adapted to realize that good defense does not come from hitting and shot blocking. That is why few people realize that the Leafs best defensive defenseman are Carrick and Gardiner. They allow the least shots and the puck is always going in the right direction when they’re on the ice.
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The reason the Leafs don’t play Carrick more is because it is so counter-intuitive to suggest that a small player with no offense could be so effective. They are wrong to sit him.
Babcock needs to play Connor Carrick in 100% of the Leafs games. He should not only be in every game, but he should be playing on one of the top two pairings. He is the Leafs best right-shot defenseman.
Stats from corsica.hockey