Toronto Maple Leafs: The Connor Carrick Conundrum

Connor Carrick’s two-and-a-half year tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs has been shrouded in uncertainty.

The Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman has never been able to climb into head coach Mike Babcock’s good graces. The downward spiral began almost as soon as Carrick was traded by the Washington Capitals mid-season before the 2016 trade deadline.

Carrick has bounced in and out of the lineup all season, struggling with consistency and to impress Babcock enough to stay in. It’s obvious to everyone that Carrick is a better option most nights than Babcock-favourite Roman Polak, so what exactly gives Polak the edge over Carrick?

Carrick’s Leaf Tenure So Far

After being acquired by the Maple Leafs, Carrick played 16 games with them that season. If you’ll recall, that was the absolute trainwreck team that finished last in the NHL and drafted Auston Matthews a few months later. He played about 16-and-a-half minutes a game and finished the season with four points (all with the Leafs).

The next season (last year), Carrick played 67 games and doubled his point totals from the previous season with 8. His average ice-time dropped slightly to 16:20. He spent most of the season paired with Jake Gardiner and finished the year with 53.5 CF%, the highest possession numbers of the nine defensemen who dressed for the Leafs that season. Carrick played about 12 minutes in the playoffs, didn’t put up a single point, and saw his possession numbers drop under 50%. Could this be where he started to slip in Babcock’s mind?

This season, Carrick has seven points in 34 games. He’s already almost matched his point total from last season, and I would say that he’d pass it this year if he wasn’t permanently locked in the press box. His TOI has dropped dramatically this season, hovering around 15:07 a game. Yet, he continues to put up steady possession numbers, his CF% hovering around 51.5% right now.

Carrick rarely plays on either special teams, though if he is given a chance on one unit it is usually on the man-advantage. He does take a fair number of penalties (51 last season and 23 so far this year), although it’s worth noting that he still takes less penalties a season than Polak. However, his declining ice time and increased time spent in the press box are concerning indications that he’s not really a part of the Leafs future.

The Veteran Pass

What exactly does Roman Polak have over Connor Carrick?

It’s the question that has been bugging me ever since the Leafs resigned Polak in late October. Yes, Polak kills penalties and is somewhat efficient there, but he takes so many unnecessary penalties. I’ve been saying for months now that it doesn’t mean anything that Polak kills penalties if he spends just as much time serving them.

Babcock is giving Polak what I call the veteran pass; a coach giving a veteran player the benefit of the doubt when they make boneheaded mistakes (like blowing defensive zone coverage). Polak has never been a positive possession player. This season he sits at 48.0 CF%, and his average in four years with the Leafs is 47.2 CF%.

This isn’t to say that Carrick doesn’t make mistakes. He does, but so does every other player. Carrick does take less penalties (although probably not enough to really sway Babcock’s opinion). His inexperience is probably why Polak is more heavily favoured in most situations. (I would like to just note that being a veteran should not be the only deciding factor in who gets ice-time, but I digress.)

Passed On Depth Chart

If we’re really throwing stones here, Carrick’s battle for a spot on the blueline has never really been between him and Polak. It’s been with Andreas Borgman. Borgman is close to Carrick’s age, doesn’t really play on special teams either, and averages less ice-time per game than Carrick. However, Borgman has 11 points in 48 games this season.

The Leafs recent injuries and illnesses on the blueline (to Morgan Rielly, Nikita Zaitsev, Roman Polak, and Ron Hainsey) resulted in them recalling Martin Marincin, Travis Dermott, and Justin Holl from the Marlies. Marincin didn’t play very well, and he was sent back. Dermott, on the other hand, impressed on his very first NHL shift. Holl broke a multiple Leafs and NHL records, but was sent down as soon as the regular defenders became healthy once again.

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The injuries allowed Carrick to get regular ice-time and opportunities again. Unfortunately, just as he was getting used to the increased responsibility, the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline was suddenly healthy again. Zaitsev returned from a broken foot, Rielly’s shoulder injury healed, and Hainsey and Polak had gotten over their bouts with the flu. Plus, Dermott had impressed Babcock enough that he’s leapt over Carrick on the depth chart.

Dermott’s stellar play pushed Carrick back into the press box and Borgman down to the Marlies. Unless there’s another injury or Dermott falters, it appears as though Carrick’s time in the lineup is pretty much finished.

Pending RFA

Carrick’s time in Toronto is running out, and not just figuratively. His contract is up after this season and he will become a restricted free agent on July 1st. We are obviously not going to see any contract negotiations happen during the season.

I don’t even know if the Leafs will extend Carrick a qualifying offer when the season ends. Carrick makes $750,000 this year. He’s undoubtedly due for a raise, but will it be with the Leafs?

Carrick is eligible for arbitration in the summer, but he won’t even get there if the Leafs don’t extend him a qualifying offer. He’ll become an unrestricted free agent if they don’t.

The Leafs a lot of RFAs to make decisions on.

The Leafs have 25 games left in this season.

Next: The Case for Marcus Kruger

Unfortunately, here’s no way of knowing how many more of those games Carrick will dress for. Whether or not he returns to the Toronto Maple Leafs next season, Carrick needs to make the most of every game he does play in. He’s not just playing for a spot on the Leafs roster anymore, he’s playing for a contract and a future in the NHL. But as time runs out on this season, it just might be a little too late.

Statistics from Hockey Reference, CapFriendly, and Corsica Hockey.