The Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews currently leads the NHL in 5v5 goals.
Last year, as a rookie, Matthews also led the NHL in goals scored at even-strength. This year, he’s got 20 in 45 games. Nikita Kucherov also has 20, but the Toronto Maple Leafs centre has played eight less games.
Matthews may not be close to the overall goal scoring lead – Ovechkin has 32, and Matthews is tied for 11th with 25. The Rocket Richard trophy isn’t ever going to be something Matthews can win as long as Babcock limits his power-play time. While Matthews gets some of the biggest 5v5 minutes in the NHL, he is currently the Leafs 6th most used player on the power-play, in terms of ice-time per game.
While this has the problem of limiting Matthews’ total goal outcome, it’s actually not an actual issue, and in fact may be a genius move on Mike Babcock’s part.
5v5 vs Power Play
It is accepted new-age hockey dogma that 5v5 goals are harder to score and thus more important than power-play goals. The theory is basically that everyone more or less scores on 20% of their power-plays, and that over time, whoever scores the most 5v5 goals will win the most games.
Team’s will often do much better or worse than 20%, but not over a long period of time. Also, power-plays don’t really correlate to winning – the Penguins have the most power-play goals in the NHL, and are basically a coin flip to make the playoffs right now. The terrible Buffalo Sabres were the fourth best PP team last year, and currently, there is ten goals separating the 7th and the 28th best teams on the PP. Therefore, 5v5 goals are way more important.
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There is no question that they are harder to score. Matthews leading the NHL for two straight seasons in 5v5 goal scoring makes him the best goal scorer in the NHL. Full stop. It won’t be seen this way, but winning the 5v5 goal title is significantly harder, and more important accomplishment than winning the overall goal title.
But what about not playing Matthews on the power-play as much as other centres? Why does Babcock do it? The answer is that it’s wasteful to play Matthews on the power-play. If you played him for zero power play minutes, and added another two or three 5v5 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs would actually be a better team. That is because you can replace what Matthews does 5v4, but you can’t replace what he does 5v5. Of course is would anger the player and cause a huge controversy, so no one is ever going to do it, but it would be the optimum strategy to save your best player’s ice time for 5v5. (Which is why the current trend of using two forwards on the power-play is so bad. Whatever you gain offensively – probably nothing – is at the cost of being way more susceptible to short-handed goals).
Babcock is a Genius!
Consider also that when Auston Matthews steps on the ice at 5v5, he is significantly better than most players. All players of his level have the ability to create room for themselves at even-strength. On the power-play, however, everyone has a ton of room. Matthews edge goes away. Granted, he’s still a great player, but with ten feet of space, all NHL players are great. Given the chance, virtually every player in the NHL would be at least somewhat decent on the power-play. They are literally all amazing hockey players, and if you give them the one thing they are denied at the NHL level – room – they can prove it.
So while giving Tyler Bozak the same amount of minutes on the power-play may seem counter-intuitive, even insane, if you think about it, it makes sense. With room to operate, Bozak is a great offensive player. He can’t make room for himself at 5v5 like Matthews, but on the PP, he’s just as good. Over the course of two seasons, Bozak and Matthews have a near identical points / 60 rating.
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Mike Babcock may be taking some heat for some of his lineup choices, but he deserves some praise for the genius way in which he’s allotting Matthews’ ice time. People often wonder why Matthews doesn’t get more power-play time, but the Toronto Maple Leafs are actually better for it.