The Toronto Maple Leafs have made a terrible decision.
Or, more specifically, the coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs has made a terrible decision. Without deference to logic, stats, eye-sight or really any quantifiable thing known to man in the existing universe, the Leafs are going to play Roman Polak.
Based on today’s morning skate, it would appear as though Roman Polak will replace Connor Carrick against Anaheim tonight. Leafs would need to create a roster spot to bring him off IR.
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) February 5, 2018
Roman Polak is terrible. He is slow. He is one of the worst players in the NHL for allowing shots-against. The very thing that is the Leafs Achilles Heel. Why would they do this? Well you can’t win in the NHL unless you dress a slow, outdated old-school checker.
Oh wait? All statistical analysis proves otherwise? Oh well!
The Penalty Kill
The Toronto Maple Leafs use the excuse of the penalty kill to play Roman Polak. Against Boston, the Leafs allowed two power-play goals, so the reasoning is, they have to play Roman Polak.
This is terrible reasoning. There is a large correlation between winning games and having good 5v5 stats. There isn’t a big correlation between penalty killing and winning. Over time, regardless of personnel, you’re likely to allow one goal every five power-plays, or roughly 20%.
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Yes, it can be helpful if you improve on this, but no single player can affect enough change to be worth playing as a specialist. That is, if Polak hurts the team 5v5 – where 90% of the game is played – then he’d have to be AMAZING to compensate for it on the PK.
But weirdly, I can’t find any evidence of that. Polak is a fine penalty-killer. The reason he’s terrible at 5v5 is because he can’t skate, doesn’t pass well and can’t handle the puck. But in a defense-only situation, he’s fine.
The problem is that it makes almost no logical sense to play a penalty killing specialist if he can’t play 5v5. Polak is among the worst players in the NHL at 5v5 and isn’t remotely good enough at penalty killing to make up for it.
Mike Babcock should know better. I’d bet that he does no better. But he seems to want what Polak brings. And, if the Leafs didn’t have better options, I wouldn’t care.
The problem is this: Connor Carrick is the Toronto Maple Leafs best shot-limiting defenseman. Roman Polak is their worst shot-limiting defenseman. The Leafs single biggest problem is that they allow too many shots against.
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The answer to that problem sure as hell isn’t replacing Carrick with Polak. In fact, it’s downright illogical. Bad decision, huge mistake. And we’re stuck with Babcock for like a decade.