Toronto Maple Leafs: Defence Far From Biggest Team Need

Since the dawn of human civilization, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been in search of a top-four defenceman.

At least, it’s always seemed that way. How many trade deadlines have come and gone, gifting TSN or Sportsnet hours of free content solely based on which defenceman the Toronto Maple Leafs should target?

But, what if I told you that defence isn’t this team’s most pressing need? That the hours upon hours of punditry shouldn’t be entirely focused on their plight to acquire a blueliner?

What if I told you the Leafs biggest need is at centre.

For a team whose depth chart reads Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak down the middle, that might seem a tad crazy. Just take a look closer and the need for another capable middleman becomes all the more glaring.

Don’t Waste Assets

Look, the words “good” and “Leafs defence” won’t be uttered together in the same sentence anytime soon. I mean, aside from “watching the Leafs defence this year gives me a good chance of developing an aneurysm.”

It doesn’t have to be that way, though. As is the case with nearly every positional need, this team possesses some capable reinforcements. All they need to do is use them.

Thankfully, they’ve begun to do that.

Sure, Lou Lamoriello could go ahead and waste a second-round pick for half a season of Erik Gudbranson. Only, Travis Dermott has been just as effective, if not more, than Gudbranson would inevitably be.

And they already have him for free! Why throw away a draft pick for a redundant asset?

Instead, just use your internal options.

When Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev return from injury, scratch Roman Polak (for the love of God) and roll with a top-six of:

Rielly-Hainsey

Gardiner-Zaitsev

Dermott-Carrick/Borgman

Now, I know what you’re thinking.

Prior to the injury, Gardiner and Zaitsev were struggling mightily as a pairing against top competition. So, if you’re not comfortable with reuniting them, just swap in Carrick for Zaitsev.

Lately, Gardiner has improved mightily when paired with Carrick, and a Dermott-Zaitsev pairing sounds mighty fine to me.

What I’m trying to say here is the Leafs currently have options within their organization who could improve their defence. They may not be world beaters, but improvements can and will be made.

You just can’t say the same about the centre position.

Options Just Aren’t Working

Despite Kadri’s recent slump, he and Matthews make up a formidable dup of top-six centres. Unfortunately, as Pittsburgh’s taught us the past two years, a team must be at least three centres deep to truly contend.

And the Leafs are decidedly not. So, what’s wrong?

Well, coming last seasons career year, Bozak has taken a massive step in the wrong direction in 2017-18.

On the surface, his stats don’t really seem that out of place. He’s on pace for roughly 45 points, his 54.1% CF/60 at 5v5 is the highest of his career, and he’s even winning 52.5% of his draws (not that that really matters).

Although, delve just a tad deeper into Bozak’s play this season, and you begin to see a player in freefall.

Namely, his minutes this season have been more sheltered than ever before. Throughout his career, Bozak has never begun less than 42.1% of his shifts in the defensive zone. This year, the number is 39.4%.

This means Babcock has placed such little faith in Bozak’s defensive abilities, that he’s now starting him in the offensive zone for 60.6% of his shifts, the highest of any Leaf not named James van Riemsdyk.

It’s a little concerning that, on a team filled with rookies and sophomores, it’s two veterans who have become Babcock’s biggest defensive headache.

And I haven’t even mentioned the carousel otherwise known as the Leafs fourth line yet.

Bottom-Six Woes

Much like Bozak, Dominic Moore hasn’t been cutting it either.

To date, he’s registered the fewest shot attempts of any Leafs forward to go along with a dreadful 47.9% CF/60 at 5v5, all despite being blessed with an exceedingly high PDO.

To be fair, the Leafs didn’t bring Moore in for his offensive production.

It’s just that your veteran fourth-line centre shouldn’t become the black hole where offence goes to die. That’s Leo Komarov‘s job. (Sorry Leo).

Believe me, I’m the biggest Frederik Gauthier fan around. But, even I’ve been forced to face the harsh reality that he may never become a full-fledged NHL centre.

In nine games this season, The Goat has posted the worst CF/60, Corsi rel, and the lowest shot attempts of any Leafs other than Nikita Soshnikov, who straight up disappeared following three games of fourth-line duty.

Those are shockingly bad results, especially for a first-rounder coming up on the five year anniversary of his draft day. As The Athletic’s James Mirtle wrote earlier this week, the Leafs fourth-line is killing them.

So, how can this be fixed?

Dry Trade Market

Franky, I’m not sure if it can. At least not through trades, anyway.

I rarely put stock in any network’s “trade bait board”, as it’s primary purpose isn’t accuracy, but to drive content instead. Although, when looking at TSN’s 2018 edition, it features what is likely the leanest group of centres we’ve seen in years.

In fact, only three centres, John-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Letestu, and Andrew Shaw, cracked the list at all.

Shaw isn’t even a full-time centre, logging minutes both down the middle and on the wings. Plus, he’s a full-blown psychopath who I wouldn’t want to touch my dressing with a ten-foot pole. I mean, just look at this baby.

Letestu, on the other hand, is in the midst of a dreadful season for the hilariously bad Oilers, and honestly, I wouldn’t want him infecting the Leafs with whatever disease Edmonton has.

That just leaves Pageau, and even the prospect of his acquisition comes with a fair share of baggage.

Namely, he’s a member of the Ottawa Senators, a team the Leafs just so happen to share a division with. Unless it’s a salary dump, which this very much wouldn’t be, I highly doubt Ottawa jumps at the chance to help improve a divisional rival.

So, where does that leave us?

Internal Options

As is the case with the defence, the Leafs should just use the options they already have.

Moving Komarov to the 4C spot would open up a world of options.

You could run with a centre unit of Matthews, Kadri, Bozak and Komarov, which actually wouldn’t be half bad. The quick fix Brian Boyle brought with him last year it may not be (we miss you, Brian), but it’ll function as an admirable band-aid until this need gets addressed.

Or, and hear me out, they could trade Bozak.

It would certainly be selling an asset at potentially its lowest value, but there’s no better time to move on than now. Plus, it could lead to some delicious line combos.

As previously stated, Komarov could occupy the 4C spot, with Patrick Marleau now shifting to centre, where he’s been pretty effective this season. That move would fill the Bozak-sized gap while giving guys like Josh Leivo and Kasperi Kapanen regular minutes.

Alternatively, the Leafs could just call up Miro Aaltonen from the Marlies.

From watching Aaltonen all year, it’s become clear that the only reason he’s not currently an NHLer is he’s simply not suited for a fourth-line role. Babcock loves his big bodies, and Aaltonen doesn’t fit that mould.

What he is, however, is a small and speedy player best suited for the top-nine, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he served as an immediate improvement over Bozak’s current production.

Regardless of the endless arm-chair possibilities, one thing remains certain. For the Leafs to truly contend, they simply cannot continue with this centre group.

Next: Leafs Visit Chicago to Take on the Blackhawks

At some point, something must change.