Toronto Maple Leafs: the Blueline In Zaitsev’s Absence

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been struggling in all areas of the ice in 2018, but there’s no denying that they miss Nikita Zaitsev on the blueline.

Zaitsev, who last played on December 15th against the Detroit Red Wings, has missed 13 games with a broken foot. Before the new year rolled around, head coach Mike Babcock was hoping to have Zaitsev back in the lineup after the Toronto Maple Leafs bye-week.

Well, the Leafs bye-week has come and gone, and Zaitsev has not returned. It appears the Leafs won’t see him back until at least early February, but there really isn’t a target date yet.

There’s no telling how the Leafs blueline will continue to perform without Zaitsev for the next few weeks, but his absence has altered the leafs defense dramatically.

Rising Minutes

Nearly every Leaf defenseman has seen a large increase in ice time in Zaitsev’s absence.

Morgan Rielly has eclipsed 25 minutes a game five times since Zaitsev’s injury. Ron Hainsey played a season high 26:23 versus the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the game after, Jake Gardiner played a season high 28:07 versus the Ottawa Senators.

No one, however, has seen their ice-time increase more than Roman Polak. He was averaging 15:26 a game before Zaitsev was injured. Afterwards, his ice time jumped to an average 18:25. With Rielly battling an arm injury against the Flyers, Polak played nearly 20 minutes.

Although Zaitsev’s injury opened the door for Carrick, his minutes have really fluctuated over that span. He played a season low 9:36 against the New York Rangers before the Christmas break, but played a season-high 22:06 against the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday.

Andreas Borgman is the only player who’s seen his minutes fall since Zaitsev’s been injured, but the difference is pretty small. He’s only averaging about 30 seconds less time on ice each game.

Scrambled Pairs

Zaitsev’s absence left a hole in the top-four. Babcock has filled it with Connor Carrick. The team first recalled Martin Marincin, who played two (underwhelming) games and was replaced by Travis Dermott. Dermott had a very impressive NHL debut but has only played four games since his call-up. Babcock has decided to rotate Dermott and Andreas Borgman into the lineup just so that they’re both not wasting away in the pressbox.

In terms of raw possession, Gardiner and Carrick have played very well together in Zaitsev’s absence. Both players play better together than without.

However,  Gardiner is better playing away from Zaitsev, but Zaitsev plays better with Gardiner than without.

Thus, when Zaitsev does make his return, he’ll obviously slot back into his usual spot in the lineup. That means the Leafs blueline is in for another huge shuffle when he does.

Eight Defensemen, Carrick In Limbo

When Zaitsev returns, Toronto will be carrying eight defensemen on the team. There are two huge questions that will be tough to answer when Zaitsev is ready to play. The biggest one is what happens to Carrick. He couldn’t crack the top six when Zaitsev was healthy, so does that mean he returns to the press box?

He hasn’t played badly enough to justify doing that, but he does look like the odd man out in that scenario. There’s no way the Leafs will continue to keep this “rotation” thing going on with Carrick, Borgman, and Dermott. Babcock seems to like Dermott more than Carrick, so it remains to be seen what happens with Carrick in the coming weeks. However, he did play over twenty minutes for the first time this season, so maybe Babcock is starting to trust him more.

More from Editor In Leaf

• Toronto Maple Leafs: Nick Robertson Healthy and Ready
• Ryan Reaves Will Have Zero Impact on Toronto Maple Leafs
• Toronto Maple Leafs: Playing Max Domi In Top-Six a HUGE Mistake
• Top 10 Scandals in the History of the Toronto Maple Leafs
• Toronto Maple Leafs: Results from the Traverse City Prospects Tournament

That only makes things more interesting.

The other question is who gets sent down, because I can’t see the Toronto Maple Leafs carrying eight defensemen for the rest of the season.

Right now, the team is in a constant rotation between Andreas Borgman and Travis Dermott for the sixth spot. Neither has played poorly enough to justify being returned to the Marlies, but someone has to be sent down.

The Leafs want to continue to watch Dermott play in the NHL, and he’s been performing up to Babcock’s standards. Borgman made the team out of training camp, and sending him down now would just seem cruel. Has Dermott made enough of an impact to justify keeping him on the team over Carrick or Borgman, though?

Unfortunately, just in terms of seniority and NHL experience, Dermott will probably be the one heading back down.

Final Thoughts

All of this is purely speculation since the Leafs have not announced a target return date for Zaitsev. Until we see Zaitsev skate, he’s probably not returning anytime soon. When he does, though, the minutes on the blueline should be spread more evenly throughout.

The Leafs penalty kill will get a huge boost with his return, although it likely means Carrick is sent to the press box and Dermott to the Marlies.

Next: Toronto Maple Leafs Roundtable: Most Pleasant Surprises

Right now, the Toronto Maple Leafs are managing in Zaitsev’s absence. They’re not sinking, but they’re not playing up to their usual standards, either. There are way more factors at play than just Zaitsev being gone, but they could really use him just to ease off of running their top three defensemen into the ground. At the rate the Leafs are playing Gardiner, Hainsey, and Rielly, the players may not have enough gas in the tank left for a deep playoff run.

That’s a story for another day, though. Until then, let’s just enjoy the ride and let Zaitsev heal.

–

All statistics are from Hockey Reference.