Toronto Maple Leafs: Numbers Don’t Bode Well for Continued Success
The Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have a regulation win in their last seven games.
That is not good. As many have pointed out, if not for the incredible month Freddie Andersen had in November, the Toronto Maple Leafs might have gotten buried in the standings early on. They have won a lot of games where they should have lost, if not for Andersen, and they are one of the top PDO teams in the NHL. They all but assured a first round match-up against the Bruins, so it’s not like they don’t have time to work out the kinks – there are 40-odd games left in the season – but the team has not played well for a couple months now.
And this isn’t “panicking.” This isn’t even venting. Yes, I realize they ‘re a young team, and no my expectations are not too high. This is just simple analysis: the team to date has a better record than they deserve to have. The Numbers below will prove it.
Team Stats
Note: All stats are from before the Senators game of 01-10-18.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the 18th ranked possession team in the NHL. While this is by no means good, they do go over 50% with Matthews in the lineup, and are a horrible possession team without him.
The Leafs have allowed the most shots against in the NHL so far this year. They’ve played up to four games more than some teams, so they’re not quite last, but they are terrible. If you break it down per game, the Leafs are the fourth worst defensive team in the NHL, in terms of shots allowed.
Roman Polak is the NHL’s second worst player for allowing shots against, and the Leafs are the fourth worst team. The math on this seems easy and he should really come out of the lineup. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the best the Leafs have played this year was in October when Polak was not in the lineup.
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The Leafs allow the fourth most shots per game, and are among the league leaders in goals per game (4th), but unfortunately, they are the 21st ranked team in shots for per game, which means that they probably have scored more than they should have been expected to and thus can expect some regression.
Bad Luck / Good Luck
It’s great to be the 4th most prolific scoring team, but when you’re also ranked 21st in shots, it probably isn’t a sustainable ranking. Further investigation shows that the Leafs have the highest shooting percentage in the NHL. They have the second highest PDO.
This doesn’t bode well for the Leafs. They are a below average possession team who only has the record they have due to high shooting percentage and a quality of goaltending that can’t/won’t last. While a healthy roster and an easier schedule give reason for optimism, the numbers show the Leafs to have a luck-based record that is better than it should be.
How will the rest of the season shake out? Expectations are sky high, but unless the Leafs can figure out how to allow a lot less shots on goal per game, I fear they may disappoint the rest of the way. Internally, they can add Kapanen and Dermott as regulars, plus welcome back Zaitsev and they’ll be instantly better. Babcock could give more ice time to Marner, Matthews and Nylander, get the last two of those guys out on the first power-play unit, and stop trying to match lines at home against inferior teams.
Next: Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Deadline Roundtable
Should the team make some adjustments, they’ll be fine. If they stick with what they’ve been doing for the last two months, they will continue to have seven game stretches where they don’t win in regulation. They are, as it stands, a team primed for a collapse.