As has been well documented, the Toronto Maple Leafs have lost three in a row.
They’ve also lost seven of their past ten. Their record is propped up by a crazy hot streak by their goalie that led to a prolonged winning streak despite some lackluster play. The thing about that though, is that it doesn’t matter. There is little cause for concern. Sure, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been surpassed by the Bruins and the Lightning are pulling away. Sure , the recent stretch of bad play is unpleasant – but it’s in no way a problem.
For one, the injury to Auston Matthews has really hurt the Leafs. Even though they’ve managed a half-way decent record with him out of the lineup, the team posts significantly better possession stats with Matthews in the lineup. The difference without him is night and day, and with him back healthy the team will win a lot more games than they have to date.
Another reason for the team’s recent so-so record is that Marner and Nylander both had incomprehensibly bad luck when it came to their early season shooting-percentage. Despite some rather unfortunate (and predictable) criticism sent their way, both players have played well this season and going forward are a near certainty to outperform the stats they put up in the first half of this season.
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There has also been lineup inconsistency, some weak defense, an unaccustomed dry spell (and injury) for Nazem Kadri. He’ll score more. Leo Komarov almost certainly will score more, even by accident.
It all adds up to optimism for an improved second-half.
More Positives
I have no concern about the Leafs recent record. The fact is, they have assets to trade and they have salary cap space. The things that are missing are things they can add if they want to. Most of their current problems come down to luck and injury.
It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day record, but really, there is no reason to believe the Leafs won’t improve their roster before the playoffs. There is no reason to believe that Marner and Nylander won’t score more.
I think what’s way more important than the recent win/loss stats is that even while the team’s lost seven of ten, the Leafs have seen Mitch Marner elevate his game to a very impressive level. He’s been bordering on dominant for a couple weeks now and he was already putting up the numbers of a half-way decent first line winger. At this level, he’s an award-worthy superstar – if he keeps it up.
The return of Matthews, the explosion of Marner and the solid play to date of Frederik Anderesn are all huge positives for the Toronto Maple Leafs that outweigh any recent bad play.