Toronto Marlies Notebook: Riding the Rollercoaster

Oh Captain, My Captain

Until now, the Marlies had been playing their season without any formal leadership group.

They certainly aren’t the only team to have neglected to name a captain, considering their older brothers in the AHL haven’t iced a player wearing a “C” since 2016.

Remember Dion Phaneuf? Thank the lord for the Ottawa Senators’ stupidity.

All that changed this morning when the team formally announced that they were naming veteran forward Ben Smith as captain, with Colin Greening and Rich “Nicest Human I Have Ever Met” Clune donning the “A”s.

These choices are perfect. In fact, both Greening and Clune could have easily been named captains themselves. They were my two frontrunners for the position to start the year.

New Year, New Ben

You’d be forgiven for harbouring any ill feelings towards Smith based on his stint with the Toronto Maple Leafs last year. Yet, those struggles weren’t necessarily all  Smith’s fault. A player is only as good as the position he’s put in, and Mike Babcock put him in a truly perilous one.

Smith was miscast as an NHL-calibre centre who could be successfully tasked with handling the bulk of penalty killing and defensive zone faceoff duties. That is simply not who he is.

Instead, Smith is an effective “AAAA” forward. One who dominates the AHL, but can’t quite keep up in the NHL. And so far, Smith has done exactly that.

On a team with such offensive depth, it is actually Smith who leads the Marlies in points, sitting on 27 in 34 games. He’s been their most consistent offensive force so far.

And that’s exactly why Sheldon Keefe named him captain: he’s consistent. Smith shows up to play in every game, never wastes a backcheck, and is leading his team in points despite playing 4th line minutes for a significant chunk of the early season.

Congratulations, Ben. You’ve earned it.

Night & Day

Since the last Notebook, the Marlies have dropped all the way from 1st in the entire AHL, to 2nd in their own division.

Mired in a slump which saw the team drop 6 of their last 7 games, things seemed bleak. After turning in a truly lacklustre performance in a 2-0 loss to the Rochester Americans, bleak turned to suppressed anger.

I mean, just watch this Garrett Sparks post-game scrum. I was there, and let me tell you, you could feel the frustration radiating off of him.

Everything that could have gone wrong against Rochester did. Their special teams, which have been the primary factor holding them back from dominance, were atrocious. The Marlies went 0-5 on the PP and 2-3 on the PK, unable to generate much of anything with the man advantage.

Tensions were high, until their New Year’s Eve showdown with Belleville.

It seems that the Marlies took the phrase “new year, new me” to heart. They exploded out of the gate, showing a jump and aggressiveness unseen for the better part of December. Their PK was perfection, killing off all 5 opportunities. Most notably, their powerplay FINALLY hit paydirt, after going 0-11 in their previous 2 games.

Pretty much everyone who was slumping used this game to bust out. Adam Brooks scored his long-awaited 1st professional goal late in the 3rd period, much to the delight of his teammates. Sparks was stellar in net, the lone goal he allowed resulting from a truly revolting Andrew Nielsen turnover.

It was a total team effort, and one I believe to be the turning point of the season.

What Happens Now?

Well, the Marlies start winning again.

Travis Dermott made his return to the lineup after missing 7 games to injury and looked positively dominant. Notching 2 assists, to go along with 5 shots, Dermott gave the team an added level of puck mobility that they were sorely lacking in his absence.

Once the World Juniors (mercifully) end, my large adult son Timothy Liljegren will return to the team, thus reuniting the effective Dermott-Liljegren pairing. Plus, depending on what happens with the Leafs, both Frederik Gauthier and Martin Marincin could make their way back to Ricoh as well.

Alas, this is the dilemma of managing an AHL team.

While maintaining team success is the key objective, your personnel decisions remain at the mercy of the NHL club above. The Marlies happen to possess an abundance of NHL-ready prospects the likes of Kasperi Kapanen, Dermott, Andreas Johnsson and Sparks, any of who could be recalled without notice.

Just look at this shorthanded goal from Kapanen. That’s NHL-calibre if I’ve ever seen it.

Every player listed above is vital to their team’s success. And, if the Marlies recent play without them has told us anything, making up for their loss is easier said than done.

Now, with that said, allow me to make some bold predictions for the remainder of the season.

Hot Takes

• Frederik Gauthier will remain with the Leafs until at least mid-March. While he didn’t play all that well against Tampa Bay last night, it was nonetheless a step up from Dominic Moore‘s recent play, and it’s clear that Babcock likes him. As I wrote yesterday, The Goat has earned a shot, and I think he won’t return to his Lakeshore digs until Spring Break.
• Martin Marincin will be sent down, and Travis Dermott will take his place. This isn’t necessarily a hot take, as most fans are already anticipating this, but I included it here because of Mike Babcock’s reluctance to make competent defensive decisions. Babcock is a smart man, and rolling out Roman Polak on a nightly basis simply cannot continue. Dermott has looked absolutely fantastic this season and is clearly ready for an NHL promotion. Marincin, on the other hand, seems to have lost Babcock’s trust. Expect Marincin and Dermott to swap places.
• Kasperi Kapanen should but won’t get an NHL call-up. Kapanen is a truly incredible player. His ability to shift his edges on a dime is perhaps the best I’ve ever seen in person. There remains no doubt that he would instantly transform the Leafs penalty kill into a fearsome unit. Now, if the Leafs were a normal NHL team, he’d be an NHL regular by now. Alas, the Leafs are not an NHL team. I have no idea what they’re doing most of the time, and that includes why they haven’t let Kappy stick yet. Expect him to lead the Marlies on a deep playoff run, and eventually become a full-time Leaf in 2018-19.
• Apply everything I said about Kapanen to Andreas Johnsson, minus the PK stuff.

Piping Hot Take

• Andrew Nielsen will lose his spot in the top-6. I really like Nielsen. He has a ton of offensive skill, and he’s pretty fast considering how big he is. Alas, he’s been straight up atrocious in his own end. On NYE, Nielsen committed three completely unforced turnovers, with one leading directly to Belleville’s lone goal. Personally, I’m rooting for Nielsen to turn it around. It’s just that the Marlies simply have too many effective D options to tolerate his deficiencies. Once Liljegren returns, expect to hear Nielsen’s name listed among the scratches more times than not.

Next: Toronto Maple Leafs and Atlantic Rivals Buying at Deadline

Thank you for reading, and I hope you’ve all had a delightful holiday season!