Toronto Maple Leafs: Babcock Demotes Another Star Player
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the top teams in the NHL.
The Toronto Maple Leafs were dead-last two seasons ago. Somehow, they managed to go from a decade of being huge losers to one of the best teams – and the deepest – in the NHL, in about the time it takes to grow your hair long enough to get Lou Lamoriello to yell at you.
But despite all of this, you can’t just write non-stop fan-service love-in blogs. It’s the Toronto Maple Leafs after all, so it just wouldn’t be the same if we didn’t find micro-problems and blow them up into really, really big deals.
i.e Freddie Andersen Is Terrible, What is Roman Polak Doing Here?, and Why Is Matt Martin on the first damn line?
So it is with this small grain of self-awareness that I ask you, once again, What Is Babcock Thinking?
William Nylander
William Nylander is the Leafs second or third best player, depending on what you think of Mitch Marner. There is really no debate here, as he is fantastic. Going back to last season, he’s gone over 100 games where the longest he’s gone without a point is three games. Despite being one of the NHL’s most unlucky players this season, he maintains a 52 point pace. He is one of the most fun players to watch in hockey.
But he’s been demoted to the fourth line in what has to be Babcock’s worst line combinations yet.
Leafs lines at practice
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) November 27, 2017
Hyman-Matthews-Brown
Marleau-Kadri-Komarov
JvR-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Nylander
Leivo, Soshnikov
Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Borgman-Polak
Carrick
Now, obviously the coach is just trying to get guys going. Marner and Brown, Bozak and Marleau have all spent some time on the fourth line this year. It’s not really a big deal. And, if you think about it, the fact that Matthews, Kadri, Nylander and Marner are on different lines will likely make the team impossible to play against or match up with.
When we see star players demoted to the fourth line, it’s a bit shocking. The reality is that the coach is just trying to get the guy going and before you know it, he’s going to be back on the first or second line.
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Nylander Not Really Slumping
Nylander might not be getting the results that would get people to say he’s playing well, but if you look deeper, he has been pretty great. He is seventh in the NHL (among forwards) for scoring chances while he’s on the ice. He is one of only seven forwards with positive possession stats on the Leafs. And even when he can’t buy a goal, the Leafs still get almost 70% of all goals while he’s on the ice.
It’s important to note that even though he only has four goals, Nylander has been on the ice when the Leafs have scored 20, which ranks him 16th in the NHL. If you rank him by on-ice 5v5 expected goals (a stat which tries to take the luck of results out of the equation and just look at how a player has played) he is ranked sixth among all forwards.
Individually, he is ranked 16th in the NHL among forwards in 5v5 expected goals for. So his play says he should be in the top 15-20 . Think about that. He has ONE even-strength goal this year, but based on his play, he should be in the top 15-20. That suggests to me that he’s just been really, really unlucky as opposed to playing poorly.
William Nylander is shooting under 3% 5v5. Players can not control their shooting percentage. Once he starts to get a bit luckier, he’ll resume his place as a threat to win the scoring title.
Conclusion
I guess it’s worth a try to move him around the lineup and see if something shakes loose. It is impossible for me to believe that Babcock doesn’t realize that his slump is just luck related. If you look at the stats, the stats say that William Nylander is one of the best goal scorers and point producers in the NHL.
The articles suggesting his slump will somehow save the Leafs money on a long-term contract must be going with the assumption that his agent is a complete idiot. Because other than a low shooting percentage that is preventing him from scoring, William Nylander is playing like an elite-level top ten scorer.
Next: Who Makes the Fake Olympic Team?
stats from corsica.hockey and naturalstattrick.com