Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly Evolving Into #1 Defenseman

Ever since his debut in 2013, the Toronto Maple Leafs have waited for Morgan Rielly to take the throne as the number one defenseman. Through 18 games, it seems as though he’s showing signs as becoming that.

Before that start of last season, all eyes were on Rielly to take the step and become a franchise defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs. After registering 37 points in 2015-2016, he took a step back offensively. In 76 games last year, he only had 27 points. (Though much of the decline was from getting significantly less power-play time).

When it comes to his defensive game, there were was the good and the bad for Rielly. He was paired with Nikita Zaitsev on the Leafs top pairing.  They were tasked with playing the toughest minutes on the team and finished with a CF% just below 50 which isn’t bad.

Altogether Rielly was over 50% and he put up 27 mostly 5v5 points, which is actually a pretty decent year when you factor in usage, so people really shouldn’t be surprised by his breakout this year.

Ron Hainsey’s Impact on Morgan Rielly’s Defensive Game

For the last couple years, the Toronto Maple Leafs best defenseman was Jake Gardiner.  This was especially clear in the Playoff last year.   In those seven games, it was Gardiner who Mike Babcock entrusted when it came to starting in the defensive zone. Whether it was a message to Rielly or not, he took it to heart and worked on his defensive game.

Through 23 games, Rielly looks like a different player.  However, we should be sure to point out – for fairness – that he is playing easier minutes than he was last year, meaning his defense looks better.  And, he’s getting more power-play time, meaning his offense is better.  This doesn’t fully explain his breakout, but it is obviously playing a part.

There is also the fact that Rielly is now 23 and entering his prime.  But what about Ron Hainsey? Hainsey could the addition of Hainsey be what has helped Rielly breakout, or is it just a coincidence?  It’s hard to think that the 36 year old Hainsey is an improvement over Zaitsev as a partner, but perhaps his style is just more complimentary?

It’s easy to credit Hainsey, but it might not be accurate.  Rielly and Hainsey together have a 52% CF, but without Rielly, Hainsey craters into sub-replacement 46% territory, while without Hainsey, Rielly actually improves.   This suggests that Rielly is having a huge impact on Hainsey and not the other way around.

When you look at how Hainsey all of Hainsey’s recent Carolina and Pittsburgh partners improved when they got on the ice with anyone else, in conjunction with the previously stated evidence, it’s difficult to credit Rielly’s strong play to just getting Hainsey for a partner.

I’m not saying it’s not the reason, just that there isn’t really any evidence for it, other than it being an extremely convenient narrative.

Morgan Rielly Is Elevating His Offensive Game

Two seasons ago, Rielly came with four points from finishing with 40 points. It appeared as though the following season he’d be a shoe-in for 40+points but it wasn’t the case. (Again, he was off the power play).  Last season Rielly had a down year offensively with 27 points in 76 games.

This season it has taken off with his 17 points in 23 games. One of the reasons for this offensive spike in numbers is that Rielly’s possession numbers have skyrocketed.  When he’s on the ice, Toronto controls the puck more often as his  CF% of 52 would illustrate.

Furthermore, Toronto generates more shots and offense with him on the ice, here’s a chart displaying the number of shot rates they’ve average this season. When comparing it to last season, it shows how Rielly has become an essential catalyst offensively this season as he’s on his way to surpassing his season totals from last season. To put a number on it, Rielly is second on the team when it comes to Shots For per 60 with 34.52 and fourth on the team in Scoring Chances per 60 with 34.2.

Rielly is adamant about showing that last year was a down year and nothing more. Thus far, his offensive numbers are showing that he can cross that 40 point mark and continue being a vital part of the Toronto Maple Leafs  offense.

(Numbers are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick and Charts courtesy of HockeyViz)