Toronto Maple Leafs: Notes on the Upcoming Week
By James Tanner
Last night saw the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Habs by a score that matched their recent record: 6-0.
While the win and the streak were both impressive, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have to keep focused on the fact that this streak is buoyed by goaltending in the .960% range. This means that the wins aren’t coming because the team is playing great, but because they’re getting incredible goaltending.
To put it in perspective, .930% is Vezina Quality goaltending. Three tenths of a percentage point might not seem like much, but .900 will get you a one-way ticket to the AHL, so in reality, it’s a large number given the range.
So while the Leafs should be happy with their wins, they should keep in mind that a team’s chance of winning drops dramatically when you allow over 35 shots.
At the same time, not everyone is going to be rolling all the time. I think winning with goaltending is balanced out by having Matthews out, or by having Nylander and Marner snake-bitten in the goal-scoring department.
So, even though the Leafs haven’t had the best games during their recent run, the odds are that once the goaltending regresses (as it will) certain players will finally start getting some luck in their shooting-percentage.
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One good thing for the Leafs as they look to catch Tampa: The Bolts are the only team in the NHL that has a PDO higher than the Leafs. Tampa can’t keep winning games at the rate they are, and eventually the Leafs will catch them because the Leafs have a better overall roster.
Next Week
The Toronto Maple Leafs will host a Coyotes team that is far superior to their record tomorrow night. Hopefully the Leafs don’t treat this as a joke game and get surprised by a team that is far more talented than casual observers are likely to realize.
The Coyotes played about half their games so far minus two top-four defenseman, their starting goalie has only played half their games, they’ve started four different goalies and their schedule has been demonic. Add in some powerfully bad luck and you have a middle-of-the-road team with one of the worst quarter-season records in NHL history.
The Leafs will then hit the road to Florida and Carolina on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. On Saturday they’ll be back home to host the Capitals.
Four games this week, against three of the worst teams in the NHL. The Hurricanes, however, are a potential powerhouse. The standings don’t currently show it as much as the advanced stats do, but the Hurricanes are an up-and-coming team, much like the Leafs.
Should be an interesting week.
Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com