Maple Leafs: Marner, Nylander not Being Evaluated Fairly

The Toronto Maple Leafs have two sophomore players – Mitch Marner and William Nylander –  that would appear to be slumping.

Mitch Marner has two goals in 20 games.  William Nylander is not doing much better with four in 20.  If you listen to any talk radio, read any newspapers or visit Twitter, you won’t be surprised to learn that both players are failing to live up to expectations in their second year.

Just last night, on the TSN broadcast of the Leafs/Devils game, the talking heads were wondering if Nylaner and Marner were meeting expectations, and if the fact that they aren’t would impact their upcoming contracts.

Not only are the point totals concerning, the majority of coverage would have you believe, but Marner is on the fourth line and William Nylander looks lost without Matthews (someone seriously said that).  It’s a damn near disaster.

Except that it’s not.

Marner and Nylander are Playing Well

Mitch Marner and William Nylander have been two of the Leafs best players all season long. The reason they don’t have more goals and points? Plain old luck.

Sometimes players actually play poorly and there is a reason they don’t score. But  a lot of the time when the media is telling you that  a player is struggling, it just means that he has an unreasonably low shooting percentage.  We know that over time, players will always trend back towards their career average, in most cases around between 7-10%

Furthermore, we know that players have almost no control over their shooting percentage. Basically every NHL player who’s played a full career has gone through a random stretch where their shooting percentage bottoms out far below their career average for an extended amount of time.  The players weren’t suddenly “bad” they just hit one of the unlucky streaks every player is bound to encounter sooner or later.

The important thing to look at is if the player’s team is getting more shot attempts than his opponents while on the ice, and if he is getting shots and scoring chances at his career norms.

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If he is doing that and still not scoring, he probably isn’t playing badly and is just running into hot goalies and a lack of good bounces.

Stats

Mitch Marner leads the Leafs with a 54.57% possession rating, and almost +6% relative to his team. (Unless noted, all stats 5v5).

William Nylander is seventh with a 51.74% rating, and is a +2% relative to the team.

The raw possession numbers are impressive, but the Leafs also get markedly better when either player steps on to the ice.  William Nylander is second in the NHL (among forwards) in scoring chances while he’s on the ice , after only Connor McDavid.

The main problem with both players is just that they aren’t scoring goals that they normally would, through no fault of their own.  Nylander is shooting 2.5%  and has one goal (5v5).  Marleau, who has six (at 5v5) is shooting 15%.  Doesn’t matter that in reality Nylander is twice the player that Marleau is now, because all you hear about is how Nylander is struggling.  He’s not.

Same goes with Marner whose shooting percentage is 4.55%.

The fact is, all these guys do while on the ice is create offense.  If they’ve had a bad game or two, that’s the extent of it.  They are both playing like NHL superstars, and once the percentages even out – which they will – they’re both going to have raw numbers more in line with expectations.

As for now, anyone who suggests they’re not playing well is just not paying attention.

stats from naturalhattrick.com