Toronto Maple Leafs Desperately Need Matthews Back

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 3-0 without their unquestioned best player.

That is a deceiving record though, because the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t been very good at all without Matthews.

The Leafs are a 50.35 % possession team for the season, good enough for 13th in the NHL. While one or two teams per year will defy possession stats and win despite having the puck less than their opponents, the probabilities of making the playoffs decrease dramatically when you have a Corsi under 50%.

The Leafs in their three games without Matthews are a 44% team. The Avalanche, the NHL’s current worst possession team, are ranked 31st with a 45% Corsi. This means that without Matthews, the Leafs have played like one of the worst teams in the NHL. (Obviously wins and Corsi don’t always equal out, but the Avalanche are only 23rd in wins, so the point stands).

Perhaps you haven’t bought into Corsi as a good lens through which to analyze hockey. Fair enough. But the Leafs – in the three games sans Matthews – were out-shot 5v5 by a combined 29 shots. They allowed 19 more scoring chances than they got.

It’s nice to win, don’t get me wrong. But when you win by accident, if you don’t treat it like a loss, you’re not going to get anywhere. The Leafs need to be able to ice a team that is capable of winning even if they are not at their healthiest. This three game set is a test of a worst case scenario, and the Leafs failed, even if the score says they won.

This shouldn’t be surprising for two reasons:

Auston Matthews is an amazing hockey player.
The centres the Leafs have dressed in his absence are terrible as a four man unit.

Replacement Players

Nazem Kadri is a great player. He produces like a top 30 centre, making him technically a “#1 centre,” but ideally, you need a superstar #1 centre, and Kadri is more suited to the 2C role on a contending team.

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Matching up against Las Vegas is one thing, but Kadri was no match for Boston’s Patrice Bergeron. The Leafs can usually counter with Matthews’ line if Kadri’s isn’t hacking it, and this makes them a dynamic team. With Matthews gone, a lot of what makes Kadri’s line so effective gets neutralized. Then, it’s made worse because Bozak, who is a strong offensive player with no defensive awareness or play driving skills, can no longer be sheltered on a third line. Marleau has to play centre where he has been good, but it’s obviously not ideal to play a guy out of position. Moore has the lowest Corsi on the team, they seem to try not to dress him, and he’s been terrible when he’s played.

This combination is Brutal. Even though it’s just one player, when it’s a top-five guy in the NHL, it makes a huge difference. Matthews basically neutralizes whatever value any other team’s top centre is giving them, and Kadri and Bozak are above average for the competition they face on a regular night, and you have to consider the opportunity cost of moving Marleau off the wing.

All together, it’s amazing how far the centre depth drops just by removing one player.

Solution

Despite the three straight victories with Matthews out, the numbers with and without him in the lineup are staggering. The Toronto Maple Leafs need to be set up to withstand any eventuality and as of right now, I think it’s clear that they aren’t.

The Leafs need to either move one of Marner or Nylander to centre, or make a move for a quality pivot who can make Bozak expendable. With Morgan Rielly playing like a Norris Candidate, this is the clear first step towards becoming an unquestioned Cup Contender. The second would be to upgrade on Dominic Moore.

Next: Devils Advocate (Trigger Warning for the Pun Averse)

With two new centres better than what they currently have, the Leafs will not only be a better team overall, they’ll be more prepared if they have to face an extended time without their best player.

stats from naturalstattrick.com