Toronto Maple Leafs: What Is Going on with Morgan Rielly?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have ended their brief three-game losing streak.

Funny how quickly you got from “this rebuild is going to be a long and slow process,” to worrying about a three game losing streak.   The Toronto Maple Leafs have arrived quicker than even their most ardent supporters argued was possible.

Matthews is better than I think anyone thought, and I also think that even if you had of drafted the next Gretzky, rebuilding a hockey team take a lot more than just one guy.  Not enough credit goes to the Leafs previous management for assembling the core of Gardiner, Rielly, Komarov, van Riemsdyk and Kadri – a group of players either in or just entering their primes, all on team friendly contracts.  It is Rielly I want to talk about today.

Picked 5th overall before anyone had ever hard of Marner, Matthews, or Nylander, Rielly was saddled with preposterously stupid expectations when Brian “the Donald” Burke called him the defacto first overall pick.

And even though Rielly has steadily developed in each of his four seasons on the Toronto Maple Leafs, he’s always been a shade under the expectation that he’d be Toronto’s answer to Erik Karlsson.   He plays tough minutes and above average defense, but he’s doesn’t hit or “clear the crease” enough to earn a reputation as a top defensive guy (though those skills have little to do with defensive impacts in 2017). He scores just under 30 points per year. Good, but not great.

Basically, up to the start of October this year, Morgan Rielly was a credible two-way defenseman who looked like the perfect #2 on a contending team.

Rielly 2.0

Before I go any further – and you know where this is going if you’ve watched any hockey so far this year – do me a favor: Do not credit Morgan Rielly’s ascension to being partnered with Ron Hainsey.   To his immense credit, Ron Hainsey has outperformed my expectations and I am willing to admit that his signing hasn’t been the garbage fire I assumed it would be.  But I credit Rielly to making that signing work, not the other way around.  Together, both players have a borderline amazing 57% possession rating.  Apart, Rielly stays above water at 51% while Hainsey drops to a healthy-scratchable 45%.

Nothing against Hainsey, but imagine what Rielly could be doing with someone who could pull his own weight?

Rielly has been one of the NHL’s best defenseman this season, and if he keeps it up, he’s going to warrant talk of a Norris nomination.  In last night’s game, he was the Leafs best player putting up an incredible 80%CF rating.  While on the ice, the Leafs put 20 shot-attempts on net, while conceding only five.

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Overall for the season, Rielly leads the Leafs in possession with a 57.17 CF%, as well as leading the team in relative Corsi.  For some reason he does not lead the team in ice time, but he does lead in points, with 10.  That is a 63 point pace, by the way.

Could be Even Better

The crazy thing about Rielly’s performance so far is that it could be even better. Rielly, at even-strength,  is shooting zero percent, despite 20 shots. At 5v5 he has only five points.  All of them are assists and only one of them is a second assist.  Second assists are fairly random and just given his ice time he should probably have at least two or three. For instance, Ron Hainsey, who leads all NHL D in 5v5 scoring with nine points, has four secondary assists.

Overall, Rielly is tenth in the NHL for defensmen scoring, only three off the lead. He is fifth in Corsi among defensemen who’ve played 150 minutes.

He really has been amazing so far this year.  Perhaps Brian Burke knew what he was talking about.  Imagine what he’ll look like once his goalie doesn’t have an 86% save percentage when he’s on the ice, his personal shooting percentage rises above 3% and he gets himself a partner who’s a bit better.

We spent all summer wondering how the Leafs were ever going to acquire a legit number-one defenseman.  Looks like they had one all along.

stats from naturalstattrick.

Next: Brian Burke Deserves Some Credit

Note: the stats are as accurate as possible.  Between the first and second draft of this article the Leafs played a game. I tried to update everything after the game, but in the case that there are inconsistencies between what is written in this article and what stats are listed today on naturatstattrick, that is why.  Thanks.