Not For Sale: Mitch Marner UnTouchable Core Piece
You know it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs you’re talking about when even a 7-2 start to the season doesn’t completely quell the craziness.
Let me be blunt: The Toronto Maple Leafs are not going to trade Mitch Marner. They are not going to think about trading Mitch Marner. It is stupid to even talk about trading Mitch Marner.
But obviously, since he’s playing on the fourth line, and the team is scoring a ton but not really defending, people start to think about trading offense for defense. It’s really no stretch to see how this line of thinking comes about, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s powerfully, unequivocally dumb.
Mitch Marner Has Played Well
Before going to the 4th line, Mitch Marner was scoring at a 70 point pace, while controlling nearly 60% of the play. Those are borderline elite numbers that do not in any way deserve a demotion.
And he was not demoted.
The Leafs first two lines have performed admirably. You can’t mess with perfection. So when Babock saw that the JVR-Bozak-Marner line was getting scored on a bit too much, he wanted to make a change, but the success of the top two lines forced his hand.
Without messing with the entirety of the lineup, he could only move players between Marner’s line and Martin’s line. As Babcock himself said it was nothing specifically against Marner, but “tie goes to the veteran.”
That is how you get a dominant possession player on a 70 point pace “demoted” to the fourth line. It was absolutely zero to do with Marner’s actual play, which has been – if not spectacular – pretty damn good.
The funny thing is, however, their line wasn’t even playing badly before the change. Marner’s on-ice save percentage is a team-low 80.85%. This means that all Toronto goalies, while Marner is on the ice, have an 80.85% save percentage.
In a league where anything less than saving 92% of shots will get you a one-way ticket to the AHL, that is abjectly horrible. People have done the math, and a player has very little, if any, ability to influence the goalies’ save percentage. And I’m guess a scoring winger has less influence than anyone else.
Marner Is Untouchable
So the fact that Marner and his linemates JVR and Bozak are all minus players is nothing more than random bad luck. They control nearly 60% of the shots and were having the perception of their play sabotaged by the fact that almost all of Frederik Andersen’s bad play was occurring when they happened to be on the ice.
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What I’m saying here is that looking at the fact he’s currently on the fourth line and making the leap to trading him is patently ridiculous. He’s going to be an elite NHL forward. He’s going to be a top ten scorer.
You don’t trade players like Mitch Marner. Ever. Unless your name is Peter Chiarelli, then you do it all the time, but I digress. Marner is an untouchable piece of the Toronto Maple Leafs core. He is every bit as valuable to this team and it’s future as William Nylander and Auston Matthews.
I don’t care if you’re getting Victor Hedman or Oliver Eckman Larsson, he’s not for sale. And, just an aside, but while the Toronto Maple Leafs could use an upgrade on Ron Hainsy in the top four, they certainly don’t need to go crazy trading for a Marner-worthy defenseman with Liljegren and Dermott on the horizon and Morgan Rielly currently transitioning his game from pretty good to elite.
Marner isn’t getting traded, and I don’t even want to hear anyone even kicking around the idea. It’s reprehensible.
stats from naturalstattrick.com