Maple Leafs: 100% of Mitch Marner Criticism Unwarranted

The Toronto Maple Leafs Mitch Marner is doing fine, thank you very much.

What would being a Toronto Maple Leafs fan be without unwarranted criticism? Larry Murphy, Bryan McCabe, Tomas Kaberle, Mats Sundin, Martin Marincin………the list goes on. When it’s warranted – like the other day when I blamed a loss on goalie Frederick Andersen – people freak out. And when things are going good – as a 4-1 start to the season would indicate – people get bored and create problems that don’t exist.

Of course, the sudden and strange criticism won’t be helped by the fact that Marner has apparently been demoted to the fourth line, but I don’t think the two things are related. You see: Mitch Marner has played well so far this year. So has Connor Brown.

The Bozak, van Riemsdyk, Marner line hasn’t had great results so far, despite more than adequate play. Shaking things up to try and get some results isn’t the worst idea, but options are limited. The first two lines are playing great and can’t be messed with right now. Brown doesn’t deserve to be on the fourth line, ever, and so you get Marner on the fourth line (for what I promise you is a very, very short time). Sure, this plays into the criticism people have been making, and it somewhat validates it, but I don’t agree that the sole reason this happened is because Marner has played badly.

He hasn’t.

Mitch Marner

Perhaps the problem is that in comparison to the first-line game-breaker people are expecting, Mitch Marner has not been living up to expectations. Regardless, I find it difficult to criticize a guy with four points in five games and a possession rating in the mid-fifties.

Now, there are concerns, no doubt. Zero 5v5 goals. Two 5v5 points. The points will come. But I’m hearing things like “lack of effort” and “listless” and I just don’t buy it. The only concern anyone should have about MItch Marner is getting him more ice time.

First thing is first: 57.52 CF% That means that with Marner on the ice, the Toronto Maple Leafs have controlled almost 60% percent of the shot attempts. I don’t care how bad Marner’s line’s defense is, or how ‘listless’ you think he looked, 57% of the shot-attempts is good, bordering on great.

If people are really starting to worry about the effort and defense of this line they might want to check out the fact that the goalies have a .750 save-percetage while Marner is on the ice this year. His PDO is 84, which is hilariously low.

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At 5v5, he’s a -3. But he has a personal shooting percentage of zero, his linemates combining for a 10% shooting percentage, and the goalie is letting in one in four shots. So the fact is, it only “seems” like Marner is doing badly. The luck has been astoundingly bad and will even out. How do I know? Because over time, save percentage and shooting percentage will add up to 100. Nearly always. If they add up to 98 you’re getting significantly unlucky. Adding up to 85 is ridiculous.

It’s more likely that Babcock himself is overreacting to Marner’s bad luck so far that it is that Marner has played badly. But again, I don’t think this is necessarily a demotion as much as it is a way to reward Connor Brown at the expense of someone who isn’t producing (despite the fact that he is producing, he’s just getting unlucky).

With Marner on the ice, so far, through five games, the Toronto Maple Leafs:

Controlled 57% of the play
Had more shots than they allowed
+ 17 more scoring chances taken than allowed.
Have a preposterously low PDO of 84

Everyone can Relax, because this is seriously one of the dumbest narratives I’ve ever had to write about.

Mitch Marner is going to be fine. Mitch Marner is fine. If anything, he needs a promotion, not a demotion. He has not played badly. The Toronto Maple Leafs are fine. They are still the best team in the NHL. Mitch Marner has not played badly. Do not buy into the BS narratives.

Next: Matthews Best Player in Leafs History (Already)

Stats from naturalstattrick.com

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