Auston Matthews Will Contend for the Hart and Art Ross

Auston Matthews –  a Mexican-American kid from Arizona – was drafted 1st overall (by the League’s most storied and important team) stepped directly into the NHL and scored four goals in his first game.

It’s the type of story that would be too implausible for even Disney.  And it gets even more ridiculous – Auston Matthews goes onto score 40 goals (and lead the league in 5v5 goals, which is more impressive than leading in total goals), lead the Leafs from last place to the Playoffs, and win the Calder Trophy.  (Which, by the way, was the first major award given to a Toronto Maple Leafs player in 25 years).

Matthews is already the best player the Leafs have ever had.  Obviously he’s got to accomplish a few things before he earns that title, but the Leafs have never had a Lemieux, a Gretzky or a Lindros. The best player in the history of the franchise – Mats Sundin – doesn’t quite make the list of the NHL’s true elite.  Auston Matthews might.  That is at least his potential.

There is no reason that Connor McDavid can’t have a rival.  Gretzky had Mario. Lindros had….well still Mario.  Crosby had Ovechkin.  Etc.

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After leading a league in which it is nearly impossible to score in 5v5 goals as rookie, Matthews is already an established superstar.  Here is something neat: players get better. 19 year olds haven’t peaked.  Matthews will still get better.

2017-18

A few things jump out at you when you look at Auston Matthews’ stat line for last season:

1. His ice time was limited compared to other similar players.   Had he gotten the PP time of most of his peers, he’d easily have won the league’s goal scoring title.  Some players got over 100 more PP minutes than Matthews.  17 goals led the league.  Matthews scored seven.
2.  Auston Matthews’ PDO was 100.2 PDO is your combined on-ice shooting and save percentage.  Given a large enough sample size, it should always revert to 100, so it is a measurement of luck.  T.J Oshie had a very lucky season (super high shooting percentage) and his PDO is 109, suggesting that he can’t repeat what he did.  The fact that Matthews scored 30 5v5 goals without being overly lucky is a) insane, and b) indicative that he can improve and wasn’t just the benefactor of a lucky season.
3. He played with Hyman.  Hyman helped drive puck-possession on the line, but he just doesn’t score.  As deep as the Leafs are, they should easily be able to find a more offensively acceptable player who won’t negatively impact possession numbers.
4. Matthews had only four(!) secondary assists.  First assists are as good as goals (some have argued better, and they do better math than me, so I believe them) and Matthews only had eight of those, but he’s going to improve as a playmaker and will get better linemates eventually, so it’s nothing to worry about.  As for the secondary assists, It’s just really unlucky to have only four of them.

Next: Atlantic Division Fantasy Hockey Preview

I believe that if you take all four of those points into account, you can easily see how Auston Matthews 69 point season was only scratching the surface of what he can do.  Connor McDavid won the Hart Trophy and the Art Ross in his second season.  There is no reason Matthews can’t do the same.

Stats from naturalhattrick.com