Toronto Maple Leafs: Ron Hainsey Is Not Good
Toronto Maple Leafs need to improve their defense.
I think I can speak for most Toronto Maple Leafs fans (and 100% of the informed ones) when I say that if the single upgrade the team makes to their blue-line before the season starts is Ron Hainsey, then the offseason will have been a massive failure.
The fact is, this is a team ready to win, but who allowed the second-most shots and shot-attempts against per game last season, on their way to being the worst team in hockey at holding a lead.
Ron Hainsey is 36. There are ways to favorably view his stats. And people have bent over backwards to do so, seemingly allergic to criticizing their favorite team. (And it’s not like anyone ever goes soft on the team that provides their cushy media credentials or anything. )
This is a guy who scored nine primary points last year while posting a 48% CF on the eventual Cup Champs, and just barely squeaking over 50% while playing on one of the NHL’s best possession teams.
“But he won the Cup on the Penguins.” Yeah, while posting a brutal 43% CF and bleeding shots-against. On a team where Phil Kessel is arguably the fourth or fifth best player.
Face it: Ron Hainsey stinks. The decision to pay him $3.5 milliion over two years was stupid. The the idea that he can play top-four and help Morgan Rielly in anyway is seriously the most ridiculous thing any Toronto team has tried to sell its fans in a long time. Maybe ever.
Still Don’t Believe Me?
If you still believe Hainsey can help the Leafs lets, look at his WOWYs. That stands for With You, WIthout You. It’s a way to view a player’s stats with and without certain other players. It’s meant to give you an idea of whether a player is driving the play, or relying on a teammate.
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When paired with Justin Faulk last season, (Hainsey’s most common partner) the two combined for a decent 50.73% Corsi-For. This means they controlled the majority of shots while they were on the ice. This is good.
But when we split them up, we see that Hainsey when not on the ice with Faulk drops to a 46% rating (brutal), while Faulk jumps to a 56% rating (which is elite).
As a pair, they were slightly above average. Broken up, Hainsey was terrible, while Faulk turned into an elite player. This clearly shows that Hainsey was bringing Faulk down.
If you’re concerned that this is just one example, know this: of the 18 position players that Hainsey spent over 79 minutes with last season (across two teams) 100% of them improved their shot rates when they skated with anyone else.
Ron Hainsey was a terrible signing. He can’t play top four minutes anymore. His play is declining by the minute. If he’s anything more than a number-seven, injury-fill-in, then the Toronto Maple Leafs have made a terrible miscalculation.
Worse than signing Hainsey is the indication it has on Kyle Dubas influence: waning. There is no way the Leafs resident statistician would have done this move on his own.
Conclusion
Ron Hainsey should not have been signed. It is preposterous on so many levels that Mike Babcock suggested he could play top-four and even worse that this cause the majority of Leafs fans to just go ahead and pencil him in there.
The Toronto Maple Leafs need a defense upgrade as badly as America needs a Presidential upgrade. Well, that may be pushing it, but you get my point.
Stats from naturalstatstrick.com