Toronto Maple Leafs: Setting Realistic Expectations

This Toronto Maple Leafs team has already exceeded expectations.

The Toronto Maple Leafs hit a reset button at the beginning of the 2016-17 season as they went from laughing stock to contenders almost overnight.

Gone are the days that the Leafs are made fun of for poor management, bad players and basically a crapshoot of an organization.

I was in the building on October 14, 2006, when Mats Sundin scored his 500th career NHL goal in overtime while shorthanded against the Calgary Flames, leading the Leafs to a 5-4 win.

Not to mention that the goal completed a hat-trick for the big Swede.

Up until last season, that was the greatest Leafs memory I had.

Almost 10 years to the day, on October 12, 2016, Auston Matthews played his first career NHL game, setting a modern era record by scoring four goals in his debut.

That was followed up by countless franchise records smashed and an unbelievable year for the group.

Coming to the start of another season, I have high expectations for how the Leafs will perform as a team.

However, I believe my expectations are realistic, so I’m going to lay them out and give some reasoning behind them.

Improved Defense

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Yes, I think the defenseman on this team will show improvement from last year, but it doesn’t stop there.

Mike Babcock expects his forwards to play a defensively aware and responsible game.

This team’s growing together, all learning the same fundamentals from the same teacher, Babs.

I fully expect the Leafs defenders to pick up their play this upcoming season and outperform themselves from last year.

I also expect the forward group to do the same.

Maybe some of us are still a little disappointed that the Leafs didn’t acquire that minute munching top pairing right handed defenseman like we all wanted.

But I still think that the current makeup of this roster is capable of laying the foundation for success, even without ‘that guy’.

Who knows, he may already be in our system developing into that type of player.

The point is, the team’s defense should be an improvement and that should be a fair expectation.

Improved Special Teams

Let’s take a quick look at the Leafs last two seasons statistics for PP% and PK%.

2015-16 PP% = 15.4 (29th overall)
2015-16 PK% = 81.6 (13th overall)
2016-17 PP% = 23.8 (2nd overall)
2016-17 PK% = 82.5 (10th overall)

That shows a major improvement in two years for their powerplay effectiveness and as for the penalty kill, a slight improvement.

My expectation is that the Leafs should be able to be the top rated team for PP% this season and land in the top five for killing penalties.

I know shootouts aren’t technically special teams, but I’m going to lump it in here.

The Leafs finished dead last in shootout wins with one last season and that’s just unacceptable.

I’m expecting them to have this fixed for next season.

Playoffs

Yes, I expect the Leafs to make the playoffs again this season.

Last year’s playoff appearance was not a fluke and it will certainly be followed up by an aggressive approach to making it there again.

Pushing the regular seasons league best in the Washington Capitals to their tipping point is a strong indication of how talented this young Leafs team is.

They’ll learn from last year’s experience and instead of just squeaking in, they should sit nicely in an Atlantic Divisional position by the end of the regular season.

That’s my expectation and I don’t think any of the above are too unrealistic.

Next: Year After Calder

Looking forward to reading your thoughts, enjoy the holiday tomorrow and be safe.