Toronto Maple Leafs: Is Patrick Marleau Worth the Risk?

To say the Toronto Maple Leafs decision to sign 38 year old forward Patrick Marleau to a 3 year, $18.75 million was met with extreme skepticism would be quite the understatement.

Since the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Marleau, I’ve heard every possible critique of this deal approximately three billion times and each one seems to exude a familiar sentiment.

“He’s too old!”“3 years is way too long!”“This is Robidas all over again!”

Well, the Toronto Maple Leafs are poised to make a deep playoff run in 2017-18. No longer is this team a loveable group of millennials who snapchatted their way into a playoff spot. The honeymoon phase is over, and the Leafs have legitimate expectations this year.

So, what should a young and talented team do to push themselves into contention? Why, sign a player like Patrick Marleau of course!

While it may be a gamble, it’s not as risky as you think.

He is NOT Robidas

Unfairly, Leafs fans have seemed to draw a parallel between the signings of Patrick Marleau and former defenceman Stephane Robidas. This is unfair.

When Robidas signed in Toronto in 2014, he was fresh off breaking not one, but BOTH of his legs the previous season. For a player whose lack of foot speed was already a pre-existing condition, a leg injury served as the worst possible ailment he could have suffered.

Marleau, on the other hand, remains a bonafide medical marvel. The 38 year old Marleau has not missed a single game since the 2008-09 season. According to my calculations, 2008 was 8 years ago. Raise your hand if you haven’t taken a sick day from work in 8 years? I can see you, and I don’t believe you.

With all due no respect to Robidas, Patrick Marleau was, and remains, the better player. He’s a member of the 1000 career point club, 500 career goal club, and has played in almost 1,500 games.

The comparison simply does not hold true.

Analytically Speaking

If Patrick Marleau has been in a steady decline, his possession numbers have not gotten the memo.

As players begin to age, their offensive production tends to be supported by the advantages of the power play. Marleau, however, has seemed to avoid that sentiment. In spite of his age, Marleau can still contribute at even strength.

In terms of possession metrics Marleau has been a positive player at 5v5 in each season dating back to the origin of corsi. On a young Leafs team playing at perhaps the most fast paced and possession-focused style of hockey in the NHL, he seems like a perfect fit.

Zone Starts

Curiously, given his offensive production, Marleau’s deployment in past seasons hasn’t been sheltered.

In 2016-17, he began 51.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone, with 48.7% starting in his own end. Now, if Sharks coach Peter DeBoer truly wanted to shelter Marleau in order to maximize his offensive production, Marleau’s zone starts would have indeed been mostly in the offensive zone.

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It is far easier to maintain possession and contribute offensively when already operating in the opposing teams end. For example, Mike Babcock sheltered the minutes of Auston Matthews as a rookie last season by giving him a whopping 63% of zone starts on offense.

Yet, with Marleau’s relatively even zone deployment, it reveals the degree of trust Deboer had in him as a defensive presence. Said trust will be music to Mike Babcock’s ears. If last season was any indication, Babcock clearly has a borderline unhealthy fixation with defensive zone face offs. Marleau will only help to feed that obsession.

Media Pressure

Toronto remains a city in which, if you happen to be an athlete, reporters will fabricate hot dog stands with the sole purpose to drive you out of town. Saddled with the baggage of an expensive contract and advanced age, Marleau is certain to face criticism in Toronto. Blame will be heaped upon him by the media if even the slightest thing goes wrong.

Yet, if his past experience shows anything, it’s that Marleau possesses the tools to navigate the choppy waters ahead.

Next: Alternative Take on Marleau Signing

Live a Little

Rarely, if ever, does a team find a player of Patrick Marleau’s calibre who fits so seamlessly into their roster.

As it turns out, that’s exactly what it seems the Toronto Maple Leafs have done this summer. So live a little, and enjoy the ride.