Toronto Maple Leafs: Exploring a Rielly / Hainsey Pairing

The Toronto Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock says he will pair Morgan Rielly with Ron Hainsey in training camp and to start the season.

NHL.com correspondent Dave McCarthy spoke with Mike Babcock regarding the Toronto Maple Leafs defense core, and with the addition of Hainsey:

It appears that Babcock has most of the blueline planned out, although it’s worth pointing out that it is August and the Leafs clearly still want to upgrade their top-four.  If Rielly and Hainsey are paired together, that leaves Jake Gardiner with Nikita Zaitsev to round out the top two pairs. Connor Carrick will likely play on the last pair, with the final spot up for grabs.

The Leafs headed into last season confident that they had finally found a partner for Rielly in Nikita Zaitsev. Unfortunately, the pairing couldn’t handle the tough minutes Babcock assigned them and team’s defense suffered as a result.

Thus, the Toronto Maple Leafs entered the off-season with a plan: to find Rielly a suitable defense partner. In Babcock’s words:

Rielly vs. Hainsey vs. Zaitsev

Rielly led the Leafs in average ice-time (22:07) last season, seeing very little of the man-advantage and used often as a penalty-killer. He and Zaitsev were deployed as the Leafs shutdown pair, though they weren’t very successful most nights.

Hainsey played similar minutes last season with both Carolina and Pittsburgh. He was often one of the Penguins’ go-to guys since injuries decimated Pittsburgh’s blueline.

It is difficult to compare Hainsey to Zaitsev because Zaitsev only has one (particularly rough) season of NHL experience to his name.

Using OwnthePuck’s HERO Charts, here is how all three defensemen stack up against each other.

Analysis

Rielly’s HERO Chart is significantly more even throughout, though actual defense is not his strong suit.  Hainsey’s shot suppression is slightly better, which may help boost Rielly’s as well. Realistically, however,  it seems obvious that Rielly should be paired with someone who is stronger defensively.

When looking at Hainsey and Zaitsev together, they are fairly similar but excel in different areas. While Zaitsev generates significantly more assists at even strength, Hainsey once again has the edge over Zaitsev in shot suppression, though he’s league average at best.

Rielly is more likely to perform better with a partner who can sit back and let him run the show. He can start rushes, join rushes, and contribute more offensively if he feels confident in a partner who can bail him out when things go south.

The Leafs still believe Rielly has the potential to become the team has been without since Tomas Kaberle left his prime.  It’s clear if this is going to happen that he needs a more defensively sound partner, but Hainsey doesn’t seem to fit playing top-four minutes.

Gardiner and Zaitsev, should they remain together, will likely see more ice time and therefore be established as the Leafs number one pair.   Rielly played more of a shutdown role last season, and it was only when he adjusted that he began to excel offensively.

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Summary

Ever since Babcock said that  Rielly and Hainsey would be paired together, a lot of people had concerns. Mostly because there aren’t many 36 year old top-four defenseman in the recent history of the NHL.  The main concern is that Hainsey is old, not getting better and was only a top-four defenseman last year by accident.  It may work out, but it’s hard to imagine the Leafs aren’t currently looking for an upgrade, especially when you consider the extra forwards currently on the roster.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t upgrade, and the Hainsey / Rielly pairing proves to be ineffective, they may give Rielly and Zaitsev another go. But that means the Leafs haven’t solved anything, and they still have Hainsey for another two seasons.  (Has anyone heard from Robidas lately?)

I would be interested to see if Rielly and Gardiner have extended on-ice chemistry. In small sample sizes they’ve always been effective together. In the off-chance they are paired together, should they be an improvement over the other pairings, the Toronto Maple Leafs may have finally found their number one pair.

Next: Is Babcock Trolling Leafs Nation?

For now, it looks like Hainsey fits the bill in their eyes. Or at least, that’s what they’re saying.

Statistics taken from Hockey Reference and Own the Puck.