Toronto Maple Leafs: Marner / Matthews Could Become Best Duo in NHL

The Toronto Maple Leafs should pair Mitch Marner with Auston Matthews when the season starts.

One thing that has kept everyone busy over the summer is thinking about the Toronto Maple Leafs potential line combinations. We still don’t even really know who will be on the team in October, but that isn’t going to stop us.

Last season, Auston Matthews spent the majority of his time centering William Nylander and Zach Hyman.  Although Hyman didn’t rack up the points, both players were more effective playing with him than without.  Hyman retrieved the puck and helped drive the play in the right direction.  In all the ways we know to measure play, he helped the more heralded players excel.  Without Hyman, Matthews dropped from a 52% CF to a 47% – which is ridiculously big drop, even if it’s only five percentage points.

I don’t think anyone who spent ten minutes digging into the numbers would want to take Hyman away from Matthews.  Though to be fair, most of the people who do probably think of the game more in terms of NHL for EA sports than anything approaching reality – must load up those lines with scorers and don’t worry about crazy things like getting the puck or defense!

We also know that Mike Babcock has a tendency to want create lines that feature a defensive presence and balance between skill-sets.  Additionally, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, and Hyman played left wing with Matthews last season for almost 1000 minutes.  It seems highly probable he will again.

But who will Play right-wing with Matthews?

Not Nylander

Nylander is a great player, but he’s probably going to eventually be a centre. Even if he doesn’t start the season at C, I think he’s got way too good of a shot to be concerned primarily with getting the puck to Matthews. (Which should be the main concern of whoever does play with Matthews).

While Matthews and Nylander seemed to compliment each other beautifully – in 620 minutes they were absolutely awesome – I’d still recommend breaking them up. When on the ice together, they were a 55% CF – which is ELITE.   There is no doubt that paired together they are an awesome duo.  The problem is, much like Crosby and Malkin, it’s better to play them apart no matter how good they are together.

Based on how good they were as rookies, it’s reasonable to expect that both Nylander and Matthews are going to be elite players who can drive possession and make those around them better.  If this is the case, then it makes no sense to improve the ability of one winger (if they’re paired) when you can make four wingers better (i.e if they’re centering separate lines).

With Nylander and Matthews, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have their own version of Crosby/Malkin and it would do everyone well to remember that those guys have gone to four Finals (and counting) while playing on different lines.

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Enter Marner

Mitch Marner and Matthews did not seem to mesh well at all last  year. When on the same line, they’re Corsi dropped by ten percentage points and the team they were facing got a large shot-differential advantage.  The good thing is that it’s almost impossible for them to be that bad together (because 41% CF is really, really bad) and it is most likely just an anomaly brought on by a small sample size.

Where as Matthews skated nearly 1000 minutes with Hyman, and over 600 with Nylander, he only played with Marner for 70 minutes (all stats 5v5 unless noted). This is a small enough sample size that we can safely ignore it and conclude that it isn’t indicative of anything.

I believe the Leafs should try to play the two together fulltime and see if they don’t improve greatly on last years stats. The team is deep enough that it wouldn’t be considered loading up one line at the expense of others.

Auston Matthews has a high probability of becoming the best player in the history of the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Mitch Marner has the talent to give him a run for his money, and will likely at least be one of, if not the best winger the team’s ever had when it’s all said and done.

That’s how talented they are.  Matthews is a rarity in that he scores more than he sets up from the centre ice position.  It seems Marner, as a pass-first winger in the vein of Paul Kariya would perfectly complimen his game – not that Marner himself isn’t capable of 40 goals.

Next: What Should Leafs Next Move Be?

Matthews and Marner have the potential to be the best duo in the game.   If not for the highlights alone, I want to see them playing together.

Stats from Naturalstattrick.com