Toronto Maple Leafs: 1st Big Mistake of Shanahan Era
By James Tanner
4. His Game is Declining
Patrick Marleau is 37 years old. He may still be a fast skater, but it is a physical impossibility that he is as fast as he used to be. When fast skaters slow down, they tend to get significantly worse. Notice that guys who don’t seem to ever decline – Joe Thornton and Jaromir Jagr – were never that fast to begin with. It’s because the body declines faster than the mind.
Marleau’s point totals have decreased now for four straight years. If you ignore his renaissance year (or at least consider that it might be an anomaly) where he scored 70 goals at age 33, he’s been declining for eight straight years. It’s been a slow decline, I’m not saying he’s been garbage or anything. But a decline it most definitely has been.
The guys is 37 and there is always a chance, increasing by the year, that he drops right off a cliff. Marleau scored 27 goals last season, but at his age, that can become 10 pretty quickly. I mean, it might not, but it’s a possibility that makes the risk/reward of this contract look like it wasn’t given much thought.
Marleau scored 27 goals last season, and that sounds impressive. But only 20 of those were 5v5. That’s the same amount of goals as Connor Brown. Brown sure isn’t getting six million on his new contract. But because of Marleau, he might get less ice-time.
Marleau vs Brown......one of these guys makes six million dollars! pic.twitter.com/ph0JiPLx9H
— Editor in Leaf (@EditorinLeaf) August 9, 2017
Marleau, as the chart indicates, brings zero defense to the table. At 5v5 he is an above average shot generator, and that’s it. Brown is just as good, but did it with less ice time.
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The only real place Marleau is effective, is the power-play. With Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Kadri, JVR, and Brown, I’m not sure the Leafs need the one thing Marleau provides.
Conclusion:
The Toronto Maple Leafs should not have signed Patrick Marleau. He is old, his game is in decline and his main skills are the exact things the Leafs are already good at.
The main reason for signing him (leadership) is, at best, a hail-Mary. There is no compelling reason to think that the Leafs needed leadership or that Marleau can provide it.
The salary is exorbitant, the term abhorrent, and better players could have been had for cheaper. It is a move that makes little sense, and is bound to blow up in the team’s face.
Next: Is the Leafs Management Bad?
I hope I’m wrong, but it seems to me that the first really big mistake of the Brendan Shanahan era has occurred.
stats from NHL.com Hero Chart from ownthepuck.blogspot.ca