Editor In Leaf
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Toronto Maple Leafs Top Prospects List Part One

By James Tanner

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 23: Timothy Liljegren poses for a portrait after being selected 17th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs during the 2017 NHL Draft at the United Center on June 23, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 23: Timothy Liljegren poses for a portrait after being selected 17th overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs during the 2017 NHL Draft at the United Center on June 23, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /
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Toronto Maple Leafs
TORONTO, ON – MAY 9: Travis Dermott /

# 7/6 Andrew Neilson + Travis Dermott

Andrew Neilson is 20 years-old, drafted  #65 overall, in the the third round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.

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The left-shooting 6’3 defenseman is from Red Deer, Alberta and just recently finished up a successful rookie year in the AHL.   Neilson finished first among Marlies in points with 14 goals and 59 points in 74 games.

Neilson is a puck-moving, offense-first defenceman who quarterbacked the Marlies power-play last season.   On the current Leafs’ depth chart, he’d most likely be the first call up.

Travis Dermott is 20 years-old, drafted 34th overall, in the second round of the same draft where the Leafs took Neilson.  He’s a bit smaller than Neilson, and he is a left-handed, offense first defenseman as well.

Both players were two of the younger players in the AHL last season, and while Neilson had more points, he had longer to establish himself as Dermott had an injury.

At this point, I really can’t tell you who is the better prospect.   Neilson quarterbacked the powerplay, and put up slightly higher point-per-game, but more of Dermott’s points came 5v5.

Neilson is bigger, for what that is worth. They both seem to take too many penalties.  Neilson seems to be higher on the Marlies depth chart, but Dermott was injured for 20 games and that might play a part.

Dermott was drafted earlier, but Neilson didn’t play junior until a year after Dermott did.  I am ranking them together on this chart because they are similar players, with similar skill-sets and they both play left-defense.

To sit here and say that I think one is better than the other at this point would be dishonest of me.  From what I can gather, Neilson has better offensive instincts, and Dermott has a better all-round game.  But the caveat with that evaluation is that there is a huge tendency among scouts and analysts to knock the defense of offensive defensemen, whether it’s warranted or not.

I could name off two-dozen excellent NHL puck movers who produce offense and keep the other team from scoring by keeping the puck out of their own zone.  Sure, they aren’t exactly great when they have to play defense, but because they drive the puck down the ice, they don’t have to do that very much.

Jake Gardiner is a prime example – he doesn’t ever appear to be playing “good defense” but the team plays less defense overall when he’s on the ice, making his defensive impacts much better than players actually known for their defensive skill.

There aren’t advanced stats for the AHL (at least I can’t find any) so it’s hard to say if Neilson is really not good at defense or if he’s just getting the lazy-analysis so common for players like him.  I suspect it’s probably the latter.  Give me the player with the most offensive talent, every time.

Next: Top Ten Prospects Part 2

That’s just my opinion though.  As it stands, either player is the Leafs best chance at developing a star defensman from the later rounds, a la Letang, Weber, Subban or Keith.

Look for for the second part, covering prospects five through one, early next week.

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