Toronto Maple Leafs Top Prospects List Part One
The Toronto Maple Leafs used to have the best prospect system in the NHL.
For like five minutes, last year, after they drafted Auston Matthews and before Mitch Marner had ever played a game. It was briefly true. But you can’t very well call an NHL teams three best players “prospects,” so the Toronto Maple Leafs have no doubt fallen in the rankings.
But who cares? It’s obviously better to have a good team rather than good prospects. The Toronto Maple Leafs – for the first time in a long time – can now say they have that.
My personal view is that if they aren’t already there, the Toronto Maple Leafs are on the verge of becoming a Stanley Cup Contender. Should some of their current prospects develop as well as the last batch has, they could be contending for years.
Still, the team isn’t yet the best in the league. There are still more pieces to add, and more improvements to make. But if the team is going to keep their big three (Nylander, Marner, Matthews) together long-term, they are going to have to keep on developing young talent.
Recently the system has seen several players graduate to the main team. Beyond Matthews, Marner and Nylander, the Leafs have also seen Connor Brown, Zach Hyman and Nikita Zaitsev move off the prospect list. Also, Brandon Leipsic was selected in the expansion draft.
That is seven of last years ten best prospects, so clearly a new list is needed.
Before we move on to the countdown, I would be remiss if I didn’t remind you about the recent series we are doing on the Toronto Maple Leafs all-time greatest draft picks. We’ve covered Nik Antropov, Al Iafrate and Gary Leeman so far.
With a bit of luck, some players from this list might one day supplant those guys.
On to the Toronto Maple Leafs Top Ten Prospects countdown:
#10 Andreas Johnsson
Andreas Johnsson was selected by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the seventh round, 202nd overall, in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft.
Since being selected, he played three professional seasons in the Swedish league, and one in the AHL. He is currently 22 years-old, and is a left-shooting left-winger.
The buzz around Johnsson started the year after he got drafted, with some hoping the Leafs had found a late round steal, a la Henrick Zetterberg. That has since proven to be wishful thinking, but the slightly undersized Johnsson is still a decent prospect.
The reason for the buzz was that, as an 18 year old, he was playing against men in a professional league and acquitting himself well. For a while he was a steady climber on lists like this.
But last year Johnsson played in the AHL, and while he wasn’t bad, a 22 year-old who isn’t scoring around a ppg – if his role is offensive, as Johnsson’s is – does not excite all that much. It doesn’t mean he won’t be good, but if he was a star in the making, it’s highly likely he’d be scoring more.
Johnsson was second on the Marlies last year in goals with 20, and third on the team with 47 points. He played in 75 games, but several players who do not really project as stars (Seth Griffith, Brandon Leipsic, and Kirby Rychel) all out-scored him. Though he did impressively lead the team in goals during their short playoff run.
Johnnson may have a future as an NHL player, but I don’t think it’s going to be with the Leafs. Now, surprises happen all the time, so I can’t say for sure, but with the team’s massive depth at wing, it doesn’t look good for Johnsson.
As far as scoring line wingers go, Johnsson’s currently behind Rychel and Kapanen, and that’s without listing the NHL regulars like Marleau, JVR, Brown, Nylander, Marner, Hyman and Komarov. If he was 19 it would be a different story. Given his age Johnsson is going to have to make the jump to the NHL soon, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to surpass enough people on the depth chart to get that chance in Toronto.
He is entering the last year of his Entry Level Contract, and the Leafs are going to have to decide if he is worth taking up one of their 50 contract spots when he’s already 22 and doesn’t appear to have a chance to make their roster.
This is really more of a reflection of the Leafs current strength and depth, rather than an indictment of Johnsson’s game. Certainly he has NHL talent and should be able to carve himself out a depth role in the NHL – especially if teams continue to experiment with skilled players down in the line-up rather than the traditional checkers.
At the same time, if he can be retained and kept as a possible injury replacement or if the team sees him as a bit of late-bloomer, he still has enough upside to include him in this list.
# 9 Kerby Rychel
Kerby Rychel is the one player on this list who the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t draft. He was acquired in a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for Scott Harington, which makes him part of the Phil Kessel trade.
Originally picked 19th overall in the 2013 draft, Rychel led the Marlies in scoring last year, with 19 goals and 52 points in 73 games. While that led the Marlies, many players (Kapanen, Griffith, Leipsic and a couple others) scored more points per game.
At the NHL level, Rychel isn’t going to be a huge scorer, so if he’s going to make it it’s going to be as a grinder who chips in with the occasional goal.
It is hard to gauge his defensive abilities when there aren’t readily available advanced stats for the AHL. One thing is for sure: he is going to have to take way less penalties if he’s going to be an effective NHL player.
One of two players on this list with NHL experience, Rychel had a 32 game tryout with the Blue Jackets the year before last. During limited time, he put up two goals and nine points. He had a terrible 45% possession rating.
Rychel has potential, but he’ll be 23 at the start of this season and as a winger on a team deep at that position, his chances of making the Leafs only seem to be diminishing. To be sure, he should have an NHL future, but it may not be in Toronto, much like Johnsson.
Rychel out-ranks Johnsson on this list by virtue of being closer to the NHL (and having already played there) but Johnsson (in my opinion at least) has both a higher potential and a better chance of becoming a Leaf regular.
#8 Carl Grundstrom
I hope you’ll forgive me for not knowing how to add those little Motley Crue Umlauts to his name, but Carl “Big G” Grundstrom is the Leafs 8th best prospect.
A Swedish prospect taken 57th overall in 2016. He is a second-round pick. He is 19 years-old, 6′ ft 190lbs and a right-winger.
Grundstrom played most of last year in Sweden before joining the Marlies for the playoffs where he played six games and had four points. Not too bad!!
In a sportsnet profile from earlier this year, they said this about his Swedish league totals (14 goals in 45 games):
Those numbers don’t jump off the page but scoring 14 goals as an 18-year-old in a defensive league like the SHL shouldn’t be dismissed.
SEAL Adjusted Scoring
SEAL adjusted scoring is a measurement that was created to compare scoring of players across various leagues prior to their making the NHL. It’s a handy way to get an idea of how a guy who plays in Sweden might compare to someone in the OHL.
It’s super-interesting, and you should read all about it here. The reason I bring it up though:
You will notice that Ol’ Grundy is tenth on that list. Only slightly behind one of the best non-NHL players in the world, Dylan Strome.
What does it all mean? Well not much. But it was enough, along with the rave reviews of his brief Marlies audition (and the whispers that he could be a long-shot to make the big team next year) to get him to #9 on our Top Prospects list.
# 7/6 Andrew Neilson + Travis Dermott
Andrew Neilson is 20 years-old, drafted #65 overall, in the the third round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.
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The left-shooting 6’3 defenseman is from Red Deer, Alberta and just recently finished up a successful rookie year in the AHL. Neilson finished first among Marlies in points with 14 goals and 59 points in 74 games.
Neilson is a puck-moving, offense-first defenceman who quarterbacked the Marlies power-play last season. On the current Leafs’ depth chart, he’d most likely be the first call up.
Travis Dermott is 20 years-old, drafted 34th overall, in the second round of the same draft where the Leafs took Neilson. He’s a bit smaller than Neilson, and he is a left-handed, offense first defenseman as well.
Both players were two of the younger players in the AHL last season, and while Neilson had more points, he had longer to establish himself as Dermott had an injury.
At this point, I really can’t tell you who is the better prospect. Neilson quarterbacked the powerplay, and put up slightly higher point-per-game, but more of Dermott’s points came 5v5.
Neilson is bigger, for what that is worth. They both seem to take too many penalties. Neilson seems to be higher on the Marlies depth chart, but Dermott was injured for 20 games and that might play a part.
Dermott was drafted earlier, but Neilson didn’t play junior until a year after Dermott did. I am ranking them together on this chart because they are similar players, with similar skill-sets and they both play left-defense.
To sit here and say that I think one is better than the other at this point would be dishonest of me. From what I can gather, Neilson has better offensive instincts, and Dermott has a better all-round game. But the caveat with that evaluation is that there is a huge tendency among scouts and analysts to knock the defense of offensive defensemen, whether it’s warranted or not.
I could name off two-dozen excellent NHL puck movers who produce offense and keep the other team from scoring by keeping the puck out of their own zone. Sure, they aren’t exactly great when they have to play defense, but because they drive the puck down the ice, they don’t have to do that very much.
Jake Gardiner is a prime example – he doesn’t ever appear to be playing “good defense” but the team plays less defense overall when he’s on the ice, making his defensive impacts much better than players actually known for their defensive skill.
There aren’t advanced stats for the AHL (at least I can’t find any) so it’s hard to say if Neilson is really not good at defense or if he’s just getting the lazy-analysis so common for players like him. I suspect it’s probably the latter. Give me the player with the most offensive talent, every time.
Next: Top Ten Prospects Part 2
That’s just my opinion though. As it stands, either player is the Leafs best chance at developing a star defensman from the later rounds, a la Letang, Weber, Subban or Keith.
Look for for the second part, covering prospects five through one, early next week.