Maple Leafs: Don’t Trade James van Riemsdyk

The Toronto Maple Leafs should Re-think trading James van Riemsdyk.

After the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Patrick Marleau, I assumed they would trade JVR.  I think just about everyone who follows the team assumes that they will.  With good reason.

The Leafs are weak on D and loaded at forward.  They can’t afford to re-sign him. Ya ya. You’ve heard it all before.  I mean, our site must have written about JVR a million times.

I suggested the other day that if the Leafs are going to trade him, everyone should either prepare for a terrible return, or the inclusion of Connor Brown and a couple high draft picks to go along with him as well.  You can’t get someone better than Rielly or Gardiner without paying huge for it.

I suggested that if they are to continue down the road signing Marleau set them upon, then they might as well go big.

But what if we’ve got it all wrong? What if the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t need anyone better than Rielly or Gardiner?  They’re pretty damn good, you know.

Toronto Maple Leafs Are Fine as Is…Almost

So this is crazy, but here me out:

The Leafs biggest weakness isn’t defense.  It’s forwards who are good at defense.  As good as Kadri was last year, he’s not your prototypical shut-down centre.  He would best be utilized as a responsible C who made offense his main priority.  Komarov is great defensively, and after that it’s slim pickings.  Hyman makes it so you don’t have to play a lot of defense, Kapanen looks very promising but has only done it in a 4th line role, and Connor Brown is no Nino Niederriter.

If the Leafs forwards can play better defense, their defenseman will too.

That defense might be lacking a big-name #1 guy, but most teams can’t throw Rielly-Gardiner-Zaitsev at you either.  If you took the average sum of every team’s top three D, the Leafs are above average.

Instead of allotting minutes in the top-heavy way most teams do, the Leafs could have three more or less equal pairings with what they currently have:

Gardiner – Carrick (54.5% possession over 600 minutes.  That’s close to elite)

Rielly – Hainsey

Marincin – Zaitsev (56% possession rating, though a small sample of less than 200 mins).

If their team defense was strong, and they maintained their video game level of offensive firepower, that’s a perfectly fine, above average defense core.

Most importantly, it’s not blocking the development of young player, should one emerge. While the Penguins and Hawks are oft cited models for the Leafs, both teams did have star defenseman emerge from second round or later picks in Keith and Letang, so the ability to remain flexible should not be underrated.

James van Riemsdyk

If the defense is good, you don’t have to trade van Riemsdyk.  And people need to stop worry about ‘losing him for nothing.’  That doesn’t exist in a salary cap world.  If JVR opts to sign elsewhere next summer, the Leafs get to spend his $4.5 million dollar salary on a new player.

Fans often forget to consider the opportunity cost of trading a player.  If you trade JVR, you also lose what he does for you.  And in a league where Taylor Hall gets Adam Larsson, Marcus Johansson (on a team-friendly deal with term) doesn’t get you a player or a 1st, and JVR isn’t enough to land decent second-pairing guy coming off a bad season Travis Hamonic, van Riemsdyk has very little value.

Yes, that’s insane, but it is true.

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JVR is worth much more to the Toronto Maple Leafs than anyone else.  Last year, on the third line (if you want to even rank them) JVR carved up secondary units like nobody’s business.

By playing him so low in the lineup, the Leafs are getting an edge every game in a league where its extremely hard to get one.

Consider this: according to @DTMaboutheart (who you should definitely be following) JVR was worth 10 goals against replacement last season.  That’s huge.  It’s more than any forward on the team.

Do I think JVR is the Leafs best forward?  Of course I don’t.  But stats that account for defense and luck say he was their most effective.  This is probably exactly because most teams are not prepared to face a third-line that features two first-line talent wingers.

The Leafs should consider this before trading him.

Conclusion

To sum up:

JVR is more valuable to the Leafs than anyone else.  He isn’t worth much in a trade. Losing him for cap space is actually a better return than you can get in a trade because he still gets to pile up goals for the Leafs this year.

The Leafs defense is fine as is, partly due to the cost of improving, and partly due to the flexibility to break in new players it provides.

Rielly will get better. Carrick will get better.  Prospects will arrive.

The Leafs can address the back-end by improving their one main weakness: lack of defensive forwards.

The Leafs have picks and prospects to deal, and it wouldn’t be the worst idea to try for someone like Jordan Staal. Staal is perhaps the best defensive forward in the NHL, and he would allow the team to unleash Kadri and keep Nylander on the wing.

Next: More Moves Are Coming

JVR, Marner, Nylander, Marleau, Hyman, Kappanen, Komarov, Martin  gives them perhaps best eight winger combo in the NHL.  Connor Brown and a first-rounder will allow them to upgrade their defensive ability at forward.

Either way, the bottom line is this: The Toronto Maple Leafs need to keep James van Riemsdyk.