Toronto Maple Leafs: The Value of James van Riemsdyk

As the Toronto Maple Leafs attempt to upgrade their defensive core for next season. James van Riemsdyk’s name remains consistent in any trade rumors concerning Toronto.

Last week, Arthur Staple of Newsday reported that Toronto made an offer for New York Islanders defenseman Travis Hamonic. Going to Brooklyn would’ve been JVR and a 2018 first-round pick. Various reports disputed whether or not that was Toronto’s offer or the Islander’s ask.  Regardless, the Islanders traded with the Flames instead.

For the Toronto Maple Leafs, JVR is a viable trade candidate. The 28-year-old found his scoring touch since arriving from Philadelphia in 2012. In five seasons, he has registered 25+ goals and 55+ points on three occasions.

The two instances that he hasn’t recorded those numbers, injury or the lockout-shortened season were to blame. Since his arrival in Toronto, JVR has exceeded expectations. Transforming himself from an inconsistent winger to a power forward winger who can net over 25 goals and 60 points.

Here’s a visual (courtesy of first line stats) which depicts JVR’s goals over the last five seasons. Not a bad return for Luke Schenn; however, to fix their defensive woes, he might have to go.

Van Riemsdyk’s Value to the Toronto Maple Leafs

If Brendan Shanahan and Lou Lamoriello decide to move JVR, they need to have a replacement in place. Although Toronto signed Patrick Marleau to lessen the blow; they’ll lack the big body presence around the net. JVR can score those dirty goals and display soft hands around tight areas.

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These are the 5v5 shots taken by Toronto with JVR on the ice, however, once he’s off there’s a difference. Their 5v5 shots generated around the net decreases without his presence. If management decides to part ways with JVR, they’ll have to find a replacement for this area of his game.

Therein lies the issue, no one on the Toronto Marlies is capable of filling JVR’s role.

None of these young players present themselves as a replacement for JVR. Here’s where @DTMAboutHeart‘s data for Goals Above Replacement (GAR) comes into play. For those who follow baseball, it’s similar to the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat. Now, during the 2016-2017, JVR accumulated a GAR of 10, meaning he’s ten goals better than a replacement player.

How did he end up with that number?

Well, GAR uses six components, even-strength offense (EVO), even-strength defense (EVD), power-play offense (PPO), drawing penalties, taking penalties, and face-offs. Like any stat, GAR has its flaws. It doesn’t take into account penalty kill. Nonetheless, the stat still paints the value for a player.

Back to JVR, he accumulated an 8.60 EVO, 3.00 PPO, 0.90 for penalties taken, and a -2.40 EVD. Even without taking the PK into account, it sums up what we know about him. JVR is fantastic on the offensive end but struggles on the defensive side (Here’s a chart courtesy of @ChartingHockey aka Sean Tierney displaying JVR’s GAR).

Next: Where Does Marleau Fit in Lineup?

If Toronto is in win-now mode (the signing of Marleau suggest they are), then why not hold onto van Riemsdyk? Especially if they cannot acquire a defenseman, who is of equal value to what JVR brings the table. Take the Jason Demer’s rumor, a viable option for the Toronto Maple Leafs to improve their defense. Despite filling a need, the cost shouldn’t include JVR going the other way.

In a perfect world, the Toronto Maple Leafs could obtain a top-four defenseman for JVR.  If they cannot get the offer they want, hold onto him and take the cap savings. It’s not the sexiest move, but it helps in the long run.