Toronto Maple Leafs: Marleau Overpaid but Necessary

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed free-agent winger Patrick Marleau to a three year deal.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have picked up a future Hall of Famer. But the risk here is enormous. The Cap Hit of $6.25 million is atrocious.

Is it worth it? It’s really hard to say. My initial reaction – as a fan – is excitement. When you get right down to it, hockey is a game we watch to have fun. My son is four, he doesn’t give a damn about cap-hits, Corsi, defensive awareness or the team’s future contract situation.

But, as an analysts, I do have to care about those things. As someone who wrote about a hundred times about the unique window of opportunity the Leafs have because of having so many prime-players on team-friendly deals and the ‘big three’ on entry-level deals, it is vindicating to hear Lou Lamoriello say as much yesterday, considering that people tell me I’m an idiot on a daily basis for not preaching patience.

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So it’s tempting to say I told you so, but I am too classy. Instead, let’s look at the risk vs. reward and see if this deal makes any sense.

Risk vs Reward: Toronto Maple Leafs

First of all, the cap hit – $6.25. It sounds like a lot. But the Leafs are in a good cap situation. They don’t really have a lot of players signed after this year, so they maintain flexibility.

The cap hit is also helped out by the cap – which was supposed to be flat – going up a couple million to $75. As long as the Leafs aren’t in the habit of overpaying, the risk here is minimal. Yes, it’s a bad contract. There is no way around that. But considering the risk, it’s acceptable if the reward is even slightly attainable, and I think it is.

Marleau allows the Leafs to trade JVR without sandbagging their LW depth. He also tells the team in no uncertain terms that the rebuild is over. That the team is meant to win now.

Despite his age, Marleau can skate and will keep up with the speedy Leafs.

Then there is his age – 37 – and the fact that he is an absolute sure-fire Hall of Famer. The Leafs didn’t have any players over 30 until this week, and now they’ve added Moore, Hainsy and Marleau. Marleau especially is important because he’s been exactly where Matthews and Marner are now. That can’t be anything but helpful.

A team needs players of every age group, and the Leafs have addressed a glaring weakness in that area. If they do trade JVR, then Marleau is an upgrade at least from a speed perspective. Overall, he’s not as good as JVR but he’s not way worse either.

Next: More Marleau

Obviously we can’t fully evaluate this deal until the other shoe (JVR) hits the floor, but I like what I’m seeing.