Heading into the Expansion Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs are far from being in a tough position.
When it’s all said and done, the Toronto Maple Leafs ultimately won’t lose a key piece to their franchise.
They don’t even have to worry about exposing anyone too crucial either.
To reiterate some expansion rules from my last piece, teams have the choice to protect seven forwards, three defenseman and one goalie or eight total skaters and one goalie.
Exempt from Expansion Draft exposure, includes players with two years or less of professional experience, while players on no-movement clauses (NMCs) are automatically protected.
With zero Maple Leafs on NMCs (Nathan Horton’s was waived due to Long Term Injury) and seven rookies with NHL experience exempt by default, Toronto has it better than most.
Nevertheless, someone is going to Vegas.
Who’s it gonna be?
It makes the most sense for Toronto to go with the 7-3-1 option of protection.
Right now, out of the 11 protected players there are essentially nine locks.
As our own Alan Downward mentioned in his latest piece, the assumed protected forwards include Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov and Connor Brown.
On defense, Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Connor Carrick are sure locks, while Frederik Andersen will undoubtedly be the protected goaltender.
With only two forwards left to protect, a few significant players remain left out.
Those notable forwards are Matt Martin, Kerby Rychel, Josh Leivo, Brendan Leipsic and Seth Griffith.
While the Leafs would theoretically like to keep all of these players and shed the unwanted ones, there’s slim chance that happens.
Why would the Golden Knights take on a pending unrestricted free agent or an overpaid contract like Brooks Laich, Milan Michalek, Brian Boyle or Joffrey Lupul?
Back to my point, the most likely forwards to be taken are the five mentioned above; Martin, Rychel, Leivo, Leipsic and Griffith.
Let’s dive deeper.
Forwards
Seth Griffith
The 2016-17 campaign was a strange one for the 24-year-old, Griffith.
The Southern Ontario-native’s dreams came true when Toronto claimed him off waivers from Boston on Oct. 11.
After just three games with the Leafs, he was waived by Toronto and claimed by Florida on Nov. 12.
In the Sunshine State, Griffith found himself on the Panthers’ top line with Jaromir Jagr and Aleksander Barkov. After recording just five assists in 21 games, he was waived by Florida and reclaimed by the Maple Leafs on Jan. 21.
Once back in Toronto, Griffith stayed with the Marlies for the rest of the season and led the team in scoring (9 points in 11 games) during its two-round playoff run.
Now as a pending restricted free agent, Griffith is in a unique spot.
It’s safe to assume he will go exposed as it’s pretty clear he is not in GM Lou Lamoriello’s long-term plan, but is still a pretty desirable young forward.
Could Vegas draft him? Maybe.
Will the Leafs keep him if untouched? Probably not.
TL;DR: unfortunately for Griffith, he is basically irrelevant to the Maple Leafs at this point in time.
Josh Leivo
In his fourth full season of professional hockey, Leivo played a grand total of 18 games (13 in the NHL and 5 in the AHL).
In his rare NHL appearances, he was good. Like, really good.
Leivo passed the eye test, put up 10 points in 13 games and (keep the small sample size in mind) had great possession numbers.
But for some reason his inability to find ice time is indicative that management isn’t too concerned with his spot in the ever-growing organization.
Along with Griffith, Leivo will most likely be exposed.
Brendan Leipsic
Personally, I’m a huge fan of Leipsic.
Beginning with this unsportsmanlike penalty for drinking the opposing goalie’s water, in the same season that he led the WHL in scoring (120 points in 68 games), I was a fan.
At a time when little pests that can produce offensively are vibrant in the Atlantic division (Brad Marchand, Brendan Gallagher and J-G Pageau), I always thought Leipsic would develop into that type of player.
As of now, he’s on track to do so.
In his third professional season, Leispic totaled 51 points in 49 games with the Toronto Marlies.
The problem with Leipsic’s spot in Toronto is a combination of his size, and the lack of power forwards in the Leafs system.
Even if you exclude William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Connor Brown some of the Leafs top prospects like Jeremy Bracco and Dymytro Timashov are small.
It’s tough to rule out talent due to size, but at a certain point a team can only have so many guys under six-feet.
For that reason, I don’t see the Leafs protecting Leipsic and I believe he is arguably the most likely to be drafted by Vegas.
Kerby Rychel
Flipped for a quarter of the return (Scott Harrington) in the Phil Kessel trade on June 25, Rychel stepped in and led the Marlies in both points (52) and penalty minutes (118) in 2016-17.
And at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Rychel is one of those rare power forwards that has true offensive abilities.
The former 19th overall selection in 2013 is another prospect in the Leafs system that is near NHL-ready.
The way I see it, he is a great replacement for James van Riemsdyk or Zach Hyman down the road, but that’s another story for another day.
The crux of the matter is Rychel is probably the most important prospect the Leafs can protect at this point in time.
His age, size and skill contain too much potential for the Leafs to risk.
Of the players in Toronto’s gray area of protection, Rychel is the only must-lock player.
Matt Martin
It’s no secret that Maple Leafs management loves Matt Martin.
They knew exactly what they were getting when the hard-nosed veteran signed a four-year, $10 million contract last July 1.
And in his first season as a Leaf, he was relatively okay.
If you ignore the remarkably low, nine regular season points he mustered (good lord, that’s bad) and focus on his intangibles, his place in Toronto can be justified.
The Maple Leafs average age of 26 calls for a father figure and Martin is renowned as the big brother, or the dad on this young team.
Can he play? Better than — *shivers* — Frazer MacLaren, Jerred Smithson or Colton Orr.
Is he worth protecting while making $2.5 million a season? Probably not.
Will the Maple Leafs realistically protect him? Yes.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL.
Ultimately, losing one of those prospects won’t effect the long-term ‘Shanaplan’.
Bottom line at forward
The way I see it, Kerby Rychel and Matt Martin will be the two most realistic players for the Maple Leafs to protect.
If I was in Lamoriello’s shoes I would rather protect Rychel and Leipsic, but I just can’t see the front office taking a risk at losing Martin at this point in time.
What about the blue line?
It’s basically set in stone that Rielly, Gardiner and Carrick will be the three protected defensemen.
Don’t try to argue that Carrick may go exposed, it’s not worth the energy.
While Babcock has been keen on Martin Marincin in the past and clearly likes Alexey Marchenko enough to bring him to Toronto after his stint in Detroit, Carrick is a right-handed shot and clearly possesses more potential than both Marincin and Marchenko.
So could the Leafs forwards be saved by Vegas taking one of these defenseman?
Defensemen
Alexey Marchenko
In just 11 games with the Maple Leafs, Marchenko (warning: small sample size) was only better than Roman Polak in terms of possession, while scoring just one goal and one assist.
Although scoring is by no means his bread and butter, Marchenko’s 6-foot-3, 215 pound frame may come across as solid silver lining at first glance.
Wrong.
His play lacks intimidation and physicality despite his ideal defensive size.
Will the Golden Knights draft him? Probably not.
Although right-handed defensemen are hard to come across in the NHL, there is no reason to protect Marchenko.
Martin Marincin
The Maple Leafs’ only hope of keeping all of their forwards relies on Marincin.
While his name appears on Vegas’ roster in some mock drafts, it’s pretty far-fetched that GM George McPhee will hand pick the 25-year-old Slovak.
To his credit, Marincin has mustered up some half-decent possession numbers through his last 90 games on two sub-par defensive teams.
Combine that with his 6-foot-4, 210 pound frame and you’ve got a solid third pair defenseman.
More from Editor In Leaf
- Toronto Maple Leafs: Nick Robertson Healthy and Ready
- Ryan Reaves Will Have Zero Impact on Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs: Playing Max Domi In Top-Six a HUGE Mistake
- Top 10 Scandals in the History of the Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs: Results from the Traverse City Prospects Tournament
Unfortunately for the Toronto Maple Leafs , the Vegas Golden Knights will most likely find more value in a Maple Leafs forward than any of their exposed defenseman.
It’s not too late to rule out a Vegas-bound Marincin, but I wouldn’t bet on it either.
Bottom line
The Leafs are probably going to lose a forward.
Best case scenario, the Golden Knights select an already-good-as-gone Griffith.
Worst case, Vegas takes one of either Leipsic or Rychel.
In either situation, the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t suffer a detrimental loss and will continue to trend upwards as its players gain additional skill and experience.
One can only hope that ‘Godfather Lou’ has a few trades up his sleeve to keep Leafs Nation entertained.