The Toronto Maple Leafs have needs, and they have a window where their salary cap situation is very conductive to winning.
But that doesn’t mean the Toronto Maple Leafs should take any short cuts.
The main thing I hear people talking about is trading Connor Brown or James van Riemsdyke out for a defenseman. The idea being that if you’re strong in one position (youth, wingers) you can trade that for where you are weak.
While this seems common-sense, I think there is a counter-intuitive way to view this problem. To really know if trading strength to shore up a weakness is a good idea, you have to know what advantage you take from having positional strength vs what advantage you give away by being weak on D.
In the case of the Toronto Maple Leafs, I submit their gains from having depth at wings far outweigh what they lose with their current defense.
The gains of being deep at forward are as follows:
*Internal competition for jobs
*line-up depth
*ability to play first or second line players deeper in the lineup and thus gain an edge over most teams
*ability to compensate for injury and ability to be patient on the trade-front and wait for someone desperate to come to you.
* They can swap out extra NHL quality players for picks and develop a self-sustaining farm system.
Now compare all those advantages to what the Leafs are giving back with their current defense, which is almost nothing.
Think about it. The Leafs under-achieved like crazy last year. They lost a statistically unfathomable 15 games in extra-time. With break-even luck they are winning the Atlantic.
The Toronto Maple Leafs were significantly better (maybe not in the standings, but accounting for luck) than teams with Victor Hedman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Erik Karlsson. The Leafs were even better than Calgary who have 3 x #1 defenseman. Maybe balance on D is just as good as having a #1 Stud.
Whatever they are losing from their supposedly bad D, they get back with their deep forwards. And the D isn’t that bad anyways. In year one post-rebuild they have time to develop their own high-end D.
And, If they can’t or don’t, the trio of Zaitsev, Gardiner, Rielly is better than most teams over-all top-three anyways. Carrick, Dermott, those recent Swedish guys, Marincin…….they make up a half-way decent group no matter how you cut it + you can get players for free on July 1st.
I think it’s really clear that the Toronto Maple Leafs have nothing to gain by trading a forward for a high-end defenseman.
Conclusion
If Taylor Hall gets you Adam Larsson, then Connor Brown probably gets you a guy who isn’t that much better than your best AHL option. That’s just the facts of life.
JVR straight up for a defenseman isn’t going to give you a defenseman who can help your team as much as JVR can while scoring against the other team’s third line and second-best power-play.
Hyman, Kapanen, Marner, Komorov, Brown, JVR are a solid three lines worth of wingers. Plus there is Leivo, Griffith, Leipsic, Rychel and any number of guys. With Nylander at centre, the Leafs still can have elite wingers.
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Additionally, they can trade what wingers that don’t fit their plans for better forwards or prospects and draft picks that they can maybe turn into their own P.K Subban. You can’t trade for one, so that’s the best plan.