The Toronto Maple Leafs are being advised in some corners of the internet to make a very bad move.
I tried to warn you once already. But once wasn’t enough. This is a public service:
Dear Toronto Maple Leafs,
Do not sign Karl Alzner. Do you not remember Mike Komisarik? Are you so quick to destroy the excellent salary cap structure you have potentially given yourself? Don’t let reports of your interest in him be true.
thanks,
Jim.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and everyone who wants them to get Karl Alzner need to realize that slow, plodding ‘defensive’ defensemen aren’t effective in the NHL anymore.
The NHL has always overpaid for size and plus minus stats. Those are irrelevant. Karl Alzner was a 47% player on the league’s best defense. He was -6% relative to his team, meaning when he was on the ice, the Capitals allowed 6% more shots than when he was off of it. He provides no offense.
“OK,” you say, “but what about his usage?” While Alzner did play the toughest minutes on the Washington defense, it wasn’t extreme (as Washington has a balanced three pairs, all good) and in order to excuse those numbers, which are very bad, it would have to be.
John Carlson, Alzner’s partner, started the same percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone. He has much stronger numbers. In fact when Carlson got on the ice with anyone other than Alzner, his team went from getting 47% of the shots to 54.5% of the shots. Essentially that is a transition from below average to bordering on elite.
Alzner Is just not Good:
The difference between when Alzner was on the ice to when Shattenkirk was on the ice was that five less shots per game allowed by the Capitals. That doesn’t even factor the offense generated. It’s juts five less shots allowed, every sixty minutes, all year long.
So if the Leafs are going to spend $5 million plus on Alzner, they might as well just pay the $8 million for Shattenkirk. I am not even sure they should go after Shattenkirk, but dollar for dollar, it’s a way better investment of money.
Maybe comparing the two illustrates best the fundamental misunderstanding about the evaluation of hockey players. Shattenkirk is offense first and he, like Jake Gardiner, he handles the puck so often that he does make very noticeable errors.
The fact is though, those errors, even if they end up in the back of the net, are balanced out by the offense he creates. But more than that, these kids of players limit the amount of defense you have to play.
Alzner might be better at playing without the puck, at “actual defense,” but no matter how good at defense you are, when you don’t have the puck you’re eventually allowing a goal. Comparatively, you cannot be scored on when you have the puck. The data tells us that teams win more games when they have puck more than the other team.
You literally cannot play good enough defense to make up for even a few percentage points worth of difference in possession rating. The Karl Alzners of the world allow will never be as effective as the Gardiners and the Shattenkirks.
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Leafs Gotta Pass:
The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot be duped by the classic inclination of NHL teams to overpay for toughness, leadership and penalty-killing. There is no value in a Karl Alzner contract. Unless signed for $2 million as a seventh / insurance defenseman, it is insane to even consider signing him.
To build an NHL defense in 2017 you need speed, puck moving ability and one or two low-event players who drive possession, like a Marincin, or a Tanev. You absolutely do not need slow, checking, shot-blockers. Not even one.
The Toronto Maple Leafs would be a better team if they played Martin Marincin over electing to sign Karl Alzner. Whats more, if they really do have their heart set on a player with this skill set, they should just re-sign Roman Polak. He’s arguably the exact same player, but he’ll be way cheaper.
all stats stats.hockey.analysis.com