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Toronto Maple Leafs: Nazem Kadri Selke Snub

By James Tanner |
Apr 19, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri (43) heads up ice against the Washington Capitals in game four of the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Washington defeated Toronto 5-4. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 19, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri (43) heads up ice against the Washington Capitals in game four of the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Washington defeated Toronto 5-4. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The NHL announced the Nominees for the Sekle Trophy, and Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri was not among them.

Now, this actually happened two weeks ago, so it’s not breaking news or anything, but a lot of people I know think that Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri should have been nominated, so I wanted to look into it.

The nominees were Ryan Kesler, Patrice Bergeron and Mikko Koivu.

The award is voted on my the Professional Hockey Writers association and is for the best defensive forward in the NHL.  Anze Kopitar won last year, but the award almost always goes to Bergeron  or Pavel Datsyuk.

Stats Comparison

Possession: 

When it comes to defense, possession is key. If you don’t have to actually play defense – because your team has the puck – you can’t get scored on. If you want to be a good defensive forward,  you best be driving possession.  The first number is the player’s corsi % and the second is their percentage relative to their team.

Kadri: 51.29%  / 1.24%

Koivu: 49.65% /  0.32 %

Kesler:  51.39 %  / 2.59%

Bergeron:  61.14 %  / 8.94%

As you can see, Bergeron is a monster.   Koivu doesn’t even help his team stay on the positive side, and Kadri and Kesler are both good.

Zone Starts:

Koivu and Kesler stat over 40% of their shifts in the defensive zone.  Kadri just under that at 38% and Bergeron only 28%.

It’s worth pointing out that only Bergeron is his teams best offensive centre as well as their defensive specialist.   Also, zone starts are a fiercely debated topic in the advanced stats community.  Some people think they matter a lot while others say that, like quality of competition, the impact is overstated.

Bergeron started 35% of his shifts in the O-zone, while the other three players all started 23% or less.  This does help explain why Bergeron has such a high relative corsi to his team, and why his number there is so high vs Kadri and friends.

When it comes to shots-against per/60, perhaps the most important measure of a defensive forward, Bergeron was far and away the best.

Here are the shots against and expected-goals against numbers for each player:

Bergeron: 23.18 / 1.79

Kadri:  31.92 /  2.58 

Koivu: 28.65 / 1.88

Kesler:  28.06 / 2.48 

Conclusion:

When it comes down to it, it’s hard to criticize the choices made by the Writers on this award.  I was hoping Kadri would get recognized, but as you can see from the stats comparisons, there is no real argument for putting him ahead of any of the other nominations.

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I think though, if you consider how people thought of Kadri a couple of years ago, it’s quite amazing we’re even having this conversation.

Not only has he become one of the NHL’s premier defensive forwards, but he also scores at first-line rates.   He’s a star player and he’s maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs best all-round player.    Maybe next year he can get himself a Selke nom, but for now, I think even he will admit that Koivu, Bergeron and Kesler are all deserving candidates.

Bergeron is the obvious winner.

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