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Mitch Marner vs Patrick Kane Rookie Seasons

By James Tanner

Apr 17, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby (70) reaches to knock the puck away from Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner (16) during the second period in game three of the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby (70) reaches to knock the puck away from Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner (16) during the second period in game three of the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner has long been compared to Patrick Kane.

Though no two players play exactly alike, the comparison is apt because both Marber and Kane are fast-skating wingers with some of the most impressive offensive moves in the NHL.   If Mitch Marner is even 75% as good, the Leafs will have one of the best players in the NHL for years to come.

But Patrick Kane is a first-overall pick, a three-time Cup winner, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and an Art Ross winner – so let’s not get crazy here.

Mitch Marner is not the same player, but the comparison exists because  position and the ability to raise fans out of their seats with awe-inspiring moves with the puck.   In the spirit of off-season fun, I wanted to see how Mitch Marner’s rookie season stacks up against Kane’s.

Mitch Marner vs Patrick Kane:

First, a couple of differences: Marner is a right-hand shot, and Kane is not. Marner is 6′ and Kane is an inch or two less, but Kane weighs more (which makes sense, he’s older). They both play right-wing.

In Kane’s rookie year, he scored 21 goals and 51 assists for 72 points.

In Marner’s rookie year, he scored 19 goals, 41 assists for 61 points.

To get his extra 11 points, Kane skated an extra 200 minutes of ice time in his rookie season and played in five more games.

If we look at 5v5 scoring, Marner scored 15 goals to Kane’s 11. Kane had more assists and finished with three more points, and only skated a half-hour more.

We can see that the difference in points in their respective rookie season comes almost exclusively from the power-play. Mitch Marner just didn’t get the minutes he could have because the Leafs have about ten other excellent options on the man-advantage.

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Looking at possession stats, we see that Kane was a much better Corsi player relative to his team (+3% vs – .013%).  Other than that, there is not much to say Kane had a better rookie year.

Marner had more even-strength goals and a higher expected-goals ranking (meaning it wasn’t just luck).  He would have had comparable over-all point totals had he gotten more power-play time.

If a rookie season comparison means anything, Mitch Marner could be just as good as Patrick Kane – there is no reason to think that, at this point, a future Art Ross or 100 point season is out of the question for Marner.

I don’t want to suggest Marner is going to be as good as one of the premier players of his generation, but the rookie comparison does bode well in his favor.  There are reasons to think Kane is better – but the fact that it’s even this close is great news for fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

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