Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Will Beat the Capitals
The Toronto Maple Leafs begin their first playoff series this Thursday against the Washington Capitals.
To my knowledge, 100% of the experts are picking the Capitals to win. This is logical. The Leafs are the 8th place team and the Capitals are the best team in the NHL. No one expects the Leafs to do anything but be happy to be here.
And while I don’t disagree that the Leafs are an underdog, I think this is a pretty reductive way to look at things.
First round upsets are fairly common in the NHL. Their isn’t a huge disparity between the best and the worst teams, because the salary cap has created near parity. So while the Caps are likely to win, it wouldn’t be that much of an upset if the Leafs won.
The Leafs are not the Capitals, but they do have an excellent goalie. He could get hot. They have three lines that feature at least one first-line player. They have a very, very underrated top-four defensemen. They’re one of the fastest teams in the NHL. They have the best coach.
And, again, at least one upset in the first round is pretty much a given.
Other Reasons the Toronto Maple Leafs can Win
Don’t forget, most 8th seeds don’t double as the fastest team in hockey. I highly doubt there’s too many 8th seeds who went on a 12-2-1 streak to finish the year (this leading up to the final four games, which I don’t even count as a negative because I think the schedule – six games in nine days – was a joke).
Also, the Leafs are a team that only protected something like 60% of their post-second period leads. Considering that even bad NHL teams win about 90% of the games they lead after two periods, and we know for a fact that the Leafs are not a bad team, it’s reasonable to write this off to bad luck.
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Which means the Leafs should have quite a few more points in the standings than they do. Then there’s the OT/Shootout record. In the NHL, it’s a toss-up after 60 minutes. Somehow, the Leafs managed to lose 15 games after regulation.
The odds of a team losing 15 games in regulation have to be lower than the odds of an 8th seed knocking off a 1st seed.
All this bad luck means the Toronto Maple Leafs are way too good to be an 8th seed. If you think about it, it’s a pretty unfair thing to do, to reward the President’s Trophy Capitals with a series against the Leafs.
The best thing to keep in mind though, is this: I read earlier that the Leafs had a 30% to beat the Capitals – that sounds bad, but it’s one in three….ish. Not too shabby!
Things with only a 30% chance of happening happen all the time.
Leafs in six!