Toronto Maple Leafs: Scoreboard Watching (February Edition)
One month ago, I posted the first edition of Scoreboard Watching, where I covered the four teams the Toronto Maple Leafs were competing against for a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division.
Ultimately, the verdict was: “If the Toronto Maple Leafs continue to win games, not only will they be competing in the Atlantic, but they will close the wild card gap.”
Thanks to consistent play, combined with a down stretch from the Philadelphia Flyers, the Leafs are now 3rd in their division while also in the race for the final wild card spot.
Unless there is a Montreal collapse, five teams will compete for the final two playoff spots in the Atlantic. These potential playoff teams are the Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators, Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers, and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Both the Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings are close enough to make an improbable run, but neither is playing at a high enough level to join the conversation at this time. Tampa Bay is also struggling mightily, but given their success in previous seasons, it’s too early to rule them out.
Once again I will cover the teams to scoreboard on the Leafs road to a 2017 playoff birth.
Ottawa Senators:
Record: 29-18-6
Point Total: 64
Goal Differential: 0
5v5 Corsi For%: 48.1 (22nd)
5v5 Team Shooting %: 7.56 (15th)
5v5 Team Save %: 91.77 (23rd)
Powerplay%: 16.9 (22nd)
Penalty Kill%: 83.4 (10th)
The Sens don’t really impress in any particular area, and they continue to occupy a playoff spot in spite of a negative goal differential.
The team boasts a few top forwards in Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, and Erik Karlsson logs major minutes, but the Sens are often exploited while these players are not on the ice.
Ottawa is still sitting towards the bottom of the league in terms of corsi, and they tend to spend too much time in their own end.
Without a major trade deadline acquisition, or a hot goalie, the Sens playoff position could be in danger down the stretch. There’s enough talent there to potentially squeak in, but it will not be easy.
Boston Bruins:
Record: 28-23-6
Point Total: 62
Goal Differential:-2
5v5 Corsi For%: 55.7 (1st)
5v5 Team Shooting %: 6.10 (30th)
5v5 Team Save %: 90.60 (29th)
Powerplay%: 20.0 (14th)
Penalty Kill%: 86.2 (2nd)
You have to feel sorry for Claude Julien. The Bruins were outplaying their opposition all season, but poor goaltending and a low shooting percentage significantly hurt the team’s record. If only he could save those shots or finish those chances himself.
Expect this trend to begin to change for the Bruins down the stretch, as Boston’s top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak looks dominant.
The team has already started to make a turn on their powerplay, as they ranked 25th in the league just one month ago. If the Bruins continue to out-shoot and out-play their opponents, they will be right in the thick of things for a top three spot in the Atlantic.
Getting better production out of their backup goaltenders would go a long way.
Florida Panthers:
Record: 23-20-10
Point Total: 40
Goal Differential: -12
5v5 Corsi For%: 51.1 (7th)
5v5 Team Shooting %: 6.12 (29th)
5v5 Team Save %: 92.45 (15th)
Powerplay%: 14.4 (29th)
Penalty Kill%: 84.4 (3rd)
The Panthers are finally healthy, but their record gives them some serious work to do in order to make the playoffs. The team carried both a high save and shooting percentage last season, and a drop off has brought them back to reality.
Nevertheless, Alexander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau should drastically help in the scoring department.
Their back-end is incredibly deep, and both Roberto Luongo and James Reimer are more than capable of getting hot down the stretch.
The Panthers managed to remain in the race despite of so many injuries, but the powerplay needs to get going in order to go on a run. If this team can start to capitalize on it’s chances, they will quickly become a real threat to the Maple Leafs.
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Record: 24-24-7
Point Total: 55
Goal Differential: -9
5v5 Corsi For%: 51.2 (8th)
5v5 Team Shooting %: 7.42 (18th)
5v5 Team Save %: 91.83 (21st)
Powerplay%: 21.2 (9th)
Penalty Kill%: 80.0 (22st)
Tampa Bay is still a threat in the Atlantic Division. In terms of corsi, the Lightning are still a top team in the NHL despite some big injuries.
With the depth and skill on the squad, they could still turn their season around with better goaltending.
The return of Steven Stamkos is also a huge determinant to their playoff aspirations. The Lightning have had a tough time filling the void left from the former 50 goal scorer’s absence.
In addition, the recent injury to centerman Tyler Johnson only further damages the team’s current center situation. The Lightning will need both of them healthy as soon as possible if they want to make a run down the stretch.
Montreal Canadiens:
Record: 31-17-8
Point Total: 70 (56 games)
Goal Differential: +21
5v5 Corsi For%: 52.3 (3rd)
5v5 Team Shooting %: 7.99 (12th)
5v5 Team Save %: 93.41 (3rd)
Powerplay%: 22.3 (5th)
Penalty Kill%: 79.1 (23rd)
As the Habs continue to lose games, the more relevant they are to the Leafs playoff aspirations. Funny how quickly things can change in the hockey world.
One month ago, the Habs looked like they already locked up the division but now the Leafs have a shot of catching them at their current pace.
Price’s performance still largely impacts the Habs success regardless of the teams improved play from past seasons. Carey Price is in a bit of a slump, which has lead the Canadiens to win only six regulation wins in their last 20 games.
In addition, Shea Weber has turned ice cold in 2017. The star defensemen has not recorded a point at even strength in over 14 games. In this time, he has three powerplay points.
With the return of Galchenyuk, Markov and Gallagher , their dropping shooting percentage should increase, but is the damage of this past month enough to get the Leafs into this division title race?
Price will surely raise his game sooner or later, but how soon will that be. This upcoming week is extreamly important for the Habs with games against the Blues, Bruins, and Jets.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Record: 25-17-11
Point Total: 61
Goal Differential: +6
5v5 Corsi For%: 50.1 (17th)
5v5 Team Shooting %: 8.64 (8th)
5v5 Team Save %: 91.93 (18th)
Powerplay%: 23.1 (3rd)
Penalty Kill%: 83.7 (8th)
The Leafs have taken a step back in terms of shot-attempt differential this month, but continue to succeed thanks in part to their special teams.
The strength of the team continues to be balanced scoring, as it’s next to impossible to matchup against Matthews, Marner, and Nylander when they’re on three different lines.
In the past 14 games, five Leafs have 10 or more points: Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Van Reimsdyk, and Bozak. In addition, Matthews (9) and Zaitsev (8), are not far behind. As Matthews continues to generate shots at an incredible clip, expect him to find his scoring touch in the near future.
On the down side, Toronto’s third defence pairing continues to get heavily outplayed. Both Polak and Hunwick can be relatively ineffective at advancing the puck up the ice, and this makes it difficult to establish possession in the offensive zone.
Although no one can complain about the penalty killing, the Leafs would be wise to give Alexey Marchenko an opportunity to contribute more at 5 on 5.
The fourth line also sees its ups-and-downs, and the group could use an upgrade at center. Both Ben Smith and Frederik Gauthier are known as “faceoff specialists”, but a 51% faceoff percentage is not exactly elite.
Byron Froese, who has 34 points in 44 games with the Marlies, might be their best option. He would be able to kill penalties take on defensive zone starts and chip in offensively when needed. In addition, the Leafs could keep their eye out for a potential upgrade at the trade deadline.
Where do you think the Leafs will finish this year? Do they need to acquire a fourth line center? Should Marchenko play? Comment below!