The Toronto Maple Leafs have surprised everyone this year. From predictions of another last place finish, to a potential playoff birth – it’s been quite the season so far!
Sitting just outside the Playoffs, with a 23-15-9 record, the Maple Leafs have ushered in a new, exciting era that fans of the team still can’t believe is really happening. Mostly because of Auston Matthews.
Auston Matthews Is Amazing
In the last thirty years, the Leafs have been blessed with some pretty amazing players: Hall of Famers Mats Sundin and Doug Gilmour. Eventual Hall of Famer Phil Kessel, and Should-be Hall of Famer Vincent Damphousse.
It’s an impressive selection, even if they team has never won. The thing is, as good as those guys were, they were always second tier super-stars.
But Auston Matthews is different.
Instead of a Sundin, he’s a Lemieux. Instead of a Gilmour, he’s a Lindros; instead of a Kessel, he’s an Ovechkin…….You get the picture.
Never. Not even once, have the Leafs had a player like this.
37 points in 47 games, as a rookie, playing exclusively with two other rookies.
Also, those point totals are diminished because he only plays 17.5 minutes per night. Connor McDavid plays almost four minutes more. Brett Burns almost seven.
Additionally, the Maple Leafs have a balanced attack. There is no doubt that if AM played with Marner and JVR, and they averaged an extra three minutes per night that he’d be at the top of the points leader-board.
The Even-Strength King
In the NHL, 5v5, or ‘even-strength’ scoring is the most important thing. 80% of the game is played at 5v5 and most teams score around the same amount of power-play goals. What separates great players from the merely good is their ability to score 5v5.
Auston Matthews leads the league in 5v5 goal scoring. He has 19. Patrick Laine has 11. Ovechkin has 13. Connor McDavid has 11.
Think about that for a second. Remember he’s a rookie who gets less ice-time that most other star players.
It’s almost unbelievable.
If we through out secondary-assists and look only at 5v5 primary-points totals, Auston Matthews is 4th in the NHL. Behind McDavid, Malkin and Crosby.
Auston Matthews isn’t just the best rookie in the NHL, he’s one of the best players. Like, we’re talking top five.
Here is a chart that shows that Matthews isn’t just getting lucky. It ranks “Individual expected goals” and the point is to recognize that goals can be random (high shooting percentage) and, as I understand it, adjust for luck to show who the best goal scorer is.
By this metric, Auston Matthews has been the best player in the NHL this season. And that isn’t even a ridiculous thing to say – he’s been unreal. The idea that Laine or Werenski would challenge him for the Calder has long since become ridiculous.
If Matthews has a good second half, if Babcock increases his ice-time and if the Toronto Maple Leafs make the Playoffs, you could probably make a good case for Matthews to win the Hart as the league MVP. At worst, he’ll get some votes.