Torrin Batchelor
These are always interesting exercises, do you know your salary cap as well as your favourite NHL clubs management team? I like to break contract projections and comparable statistically and average things out.
Connor Brown is the little engine that could. He surprised everyone by leading the OHL in scoring. Then he surprised everyone by seamlessly integrating into the AHL and making an immediate impact. Then he started as Toronto’s 13th forward, worked his way into the fourth line, then Kadri’s line and now he’s an indispensable part of the Auston “Stone Cold” Matthews experience fans are treated to every game.
He has proven to be an astute defensive player and aggressive forechecker, especially excelling as part of the Leafs revived PK unit. He’s not afraid to go to the dirty areas but also has shown his 128 point OHL scoring champion season was no fluke with flashes of finish and NHL top six caliber skill.
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The question becomes not IF the Leafs should resign him, but for how much and how long? Despite whether you think of Connor Brown as a replaceable part or your new favourite Leaf, there would be few who would argue for throwing a five-plus year deal at a still relatively unproven forward. He’s been good, but he hasn’t cemented himself as part of the Kadri, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Gardiner core quite yet.
Since this season isn’t yet over and contracts are mostly based on player performance it’s hard to find direct comparable for 11 goals and 21 points in 47 game performance he’s put together so far. So how we will approach this is by reviewing rookies from the last 3 season on a Points Per Game rate similar to Brown’s of .45P/G and see what their second contracts have been to find a base line.
Player – Points Per Game – Term Of Second Contract – Average Annual Value In Millions
2014-2015
Rickard Rakell .44P/G 6YR 3.8M AAV
Tanner Pearson .38P/G 2YR 1.4M AAV
2013-2014
Chris Kreider .56P/G 2YR 2.475M AAV
Tyler Toffoli .46P/G 2YR 3.25M AAV
2012-2013
Jakob Silfverberg .40P/G 4YR 3.75M AAV
2011-2012
Craig Smith .50P/G 2YR 2M AAV
Colin Greening .45P/G 3YR 2.65M AAV
From these 7 players we’ll remove Chris Kreider and Rickard Rakell as they were both more highly touted higher picks coming into the league. As such they have a higher potential placed upon them which can affect valuations. This leaves us with 5 players of similar draft status, ability, position and scorning numbers in their rookie years.
If we simply average their collective second contracts out we will end up with a pretty good baseline comparison for what Connor Brown’s next deal should be around.
Next: What will a new contract for Zaitsev look like?
Average Term of the Deal is 2.6, so 2 or 3 years in length. Average Annual Value of the Deals is 2.61M. So by this logic Connor Brown’s next contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs will be 2 Years for an AAV of 2.6M.
That seems like a fairly reasonable deal for both parties as the Leafs get a top six forward for cheap, while Brown gets to prove even more people wrong on a “Show me what you got” style of contract. If it doesn’t work out, the Leafs can send him to the Marlies and barely be on the hook for much cap hit.
What do you think, Leafs Nation?